Monday, 3 September 2018

INDIA’S BALANCING ACT WITH US, IRAN AND RUSSIA




SEVERED DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS BETWEEN US AND IRAN:

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or the Iran nuclear deal was signed on 14 July 2015 between Iran, the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security CouncilChinaFranceRussiaUnited KingdomUnited States—plus Germany) and the European Union. Under the agreement:
1.        Iran agreed to eliminate its stockpile of medium-enriched uranium.
2.       cut its stockpile of low-enriched uranium by 98%
3.       reduce by about two-thirds the number of its gas centrifuges for 13 years.
4.       For the next 15 years, Iran will only enrich uranium up to 3.67%.
5.       Iran agreed not to build any new heavy-water facilities for the same period of time.
6.     Uranium-enrichment activities will be limited to a single facility using first-generation centrifuges for 10 years.
7.   To monitor and verify Iran's compliance with the agreement, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will have regular access to all Iranian nuclear facilities.
8.   In return for verifiably abiding by its commitments, Iran will receive relief from U.S., European Union, and United Nations Security Council economic sanctions.
In January 2016, The United States lifted most of its sanctions against Iran after a UN nuclear watchdog International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that Tehran complied with a nuclear weapons deal. The deal allowed Iran to access $100 billion which was seized by the international community when Tehran continued to develop its own nuclear deterrent. 
On 8 May 2018, President Trump announced that the United States would withdraw from the agreement. Announcing his withdrawal from Iran Nuclear deal President Donald Trump said:

“The Iranian regime is the leading state sponsor of terror. It exports dangerous missiles, fuels conflicts across the Middle East, and supports terrorists proxies such as HezbollahHamas, the Taliban and Al-Qaida. Over the years, Iran and its proxies have bombed American Embassies and military installations, murdered hundreds of American service members, and kidnapped, imprisoned, and tortured American citizens. The Iranian regime has funded its long reign of chaos and terror by plundering the wealth of its own people. No action taken by the regime has been more dangerous than its pursuit of nuclear weapons — and the means of delivering them”.
In fact, the deal allowed Iran to continue enriching uranium and — over time — reach the brink of a nuclear breakout. The deal lifted crippling economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for very weak limits on the regime’s nuclear activity — and no limits at all on its other malign behaviour, including its sinister activities in Syria, Yemen, and other places all around the world”.
“In other words, at the point when the United States had maximum leverage, this disastrous deal gave this regime — and it’s a regime of great terror — many billions of dollars, some of it in actual cash — a great embarrassment to me as a citizen and to all citizens of the United States”.
“Today, we have definitive proof that this Iranian promise was a lie. Last week, Israel published intelligence documents — long concealed by Iran — conclusively showing the Iranian regime and its history of pursuing nuclear weapons”.
In a few moments, I will sign a presidential memorandum to begin reinstating U.S. nuclear sanctions on the Iranian regime. We will be instituting the highest level of economic sanction. Any nation that helps Iran in its quest for nuclear weapons could also be strongly sanctioned by the United States.
As we exit the Iran deal, we will be working with our allies to find a real, comprehensive, and lasting solution to the Iranian nuclear threat. This will include efforts to eliminate the threat of Iran’s ballistic missile program, to stop its terrorist activities worldwide, and to block its menacing activity across the Middle East.

After withdrawal from Iran Nuclear deal, President re-imposed sanctions on Iran with immediate effect. The sanctions affect any purchase of U.S. bank notes by Iran's government, Iran's trade in precious metals like gold, graphite, aluminium, steel, coal and software in industrial processes, Iran's automotive sector, transactions related to the Iranian Rial, and Iran's issuing of sovereign debt, according to the White House. The sanctions that will be re-imposed in November 2018 include those on Iran's port operators and energy, shipping and shipbuilding sectors, any of Iran's petroleum-related transactions, and foreign financial institutions with the Central Bank of Iran. 
US imposes sanctions on Russia:
On August 2, 2017, the President signed into law the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) which among other things, imposes new sanctions on IranRussia, and North Korea. It also includes sanctions against countries that engage in significant transactions with Russia’s Defence   and Intelligence sectors.

In April 2018, the Trump administration unleashed sanctions against seven Russian oligarchs with ties to President Vladimir Putin along with 12 companies they own or control. The measures were also aimed at 17 senior Russian government officials and the state-owned Russian weapons trading company, Rosoboron export, which has long-standing ties to Syria and its subsidiary, the Russian Financial Corporation Bank. The sanctions by the US were to punish Putin's inner circle for interfering in the 2016 election and other ongoing aggressions across the globe in Crimea, Ukraine and Syria.
INDIA US 2+2 DIALOGUE
India will host the first ever India US 2+2 dialogue on 6 September 2018 in New Delhi between External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj, Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and  US counterpart Secretary of State Michael R. Pompeo, Secretary of Defence James N. Mattis.  The two sides are expected to share perspectives on strengthening their strategic and security ties and exchange views on a range of bilateral, regional and global issues of mutual interest.
According to Randall Schriver, the assistant secretary of defense for Asian and Pacific security affairs at the U.S. Department of Defense, the agenda from US perspective could be to advance relationship by discussions on strategic and regional issues like China, free & open Indo Pacific, approach towards South East Asia, Afghanistan, foundational or enabling agreements for bilateral military co-operation 1)  Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) and 2) Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geo-spatial Cooperation (BECA), expand the scope of military exercises to first ever three service exercise later this year.
It looks COMCASA is close to conclusion with some   reservation on Indian side regarding sovereignty. United States and India have already concluded the first  enabling agreements, the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) which allows the armed forces of both sides to mutually access logistical support for compensation.
India has  two sticking points to be discussed with US :
1)  Reducing Oil import from Iran as the second phase of sanctions by US start in November 2018. India has strategic interest in Chabahar, Central Asia and Afghanistan and Iran is key to achieve strategic objectives.
2) India has concluded negotiations to buy S-400 Air Defence System from Russia and CAATSA threatens India with US sanctions. About 70% of India’s defence equipments and weapons are of Russian origin and it depends on maintenance and spares on Russia.
In July 2018 while addressing media, Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said “CAATSA (sanctions law) is not a UN act, it's a US act, we have spoken on the S-400 for years, not just today”. She further said, "Our defence relation with Russia has endured several decades and we have conveyed about it to a US Congressional delegation which visited India recently”.

US and India are expected to hold discussions to strengthen strategic, security and defence co-operation and jointly address challenges in Indo Pacific region and beyond.



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