IDLIB QUAGMIRE

Syrian leader Bashar Assad has taken back much of the country since the start of Syrian civil war in 2011. Syria’s conflict has killed more than 3,50,000 people and forced millions out of their homes. In 2015 Assad looked to be losing the war but Russia helped to turn the tide of war in Bashar Assad’s favour by giving air support to Syrian ground troops against rebels and Islamic militants.

Idlib is the last remaining rebel strong hold of the syrian armed opposition in its north western province. The heavy consolidation of rebels in Idlib  was due to safe passage allowed to rebels in Idlib during Russia brokered cease fire in the south. There are about 10,000 battle hardened rebel fighters among 3 million population of Idlib. The prominent fighters comprise Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS) affiliated to Al  Qaeda.  The Syrian government backed by Russia and Iran, has pledged to drive the remaining rebel fighters out of Idlib and has begun taking steps towards full scale military operations in the territory. The Syrian Government forces dropped leaflets  on the area in the recent weeks calling on the rebels to lay down their weapons and reconcile with the state or face a crushing offensive.

The Syrian forces backed by Russia and Iran, have stepped up bombardment of the densely populated province since the beginning of this month that have prompted displacement of about 30,000 people as per UN’s humanitarian coordinating agency (OCHA).

INTERNATIONAL REACTION ON IDLIB OFFENSIVE

On 10 September’18, its humanitarian chief made an urgent appeal.

"There needs to be ways of dealing with this problem that don't turn the next few months in Idlib into the worst humanitarian catastrophe with the biggest loss of life in the 21st century," Mark Lowcock told reporters in Geneva.

"We're deeply concerned about this recent escalation of violence, which has resulted in the displacement of over 30,000 in the area. That's something we're monitoring very closely," OCHA spokesman David Swanson told AFP.

The US mission to UN said: “The United States considers any assault on Idlib to be a dangerous escalation of the conflict in Syria”.

The EU delegation to UN said: “ The world cannot give up on Syria. Now is the time to protect the people of Idlib”.

American political analyst Randy Martin comments:

“These crack terror squads have nowhere to go, no golden parachute, pension or retirement plan. No one wants them as refugees because they are truly bad guys. What do you do with an obsolete army with nowhere to go? Massacre them. or find them a foster home? And there’s no takers on the foster homes.”

 “The terror remnants remaining in Idlib are probably the officers and hardest battlefield soldiers, as well as the leadership of Erdogan’s and CIA’s hand-trained special forces.”

Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said :

Russia would support Syria until all illegally armed groups are totally eliminated. Of the three million civilians in Idlib, many of them are actually being held hostage by the terrorists as human shields, just as the people of East Aleppo, Homs, Maloula, East Ghouta and many other places, were previously before, being liberated by the Syrian army and its Russian, Iranian and Hezbollah allies. 

As per Sputnik:

This would explain why Turkey’s Erdogan, as well as the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, are trying to stall the military offensive on Idlib. They are trying to buy time in order to minimize the blow back from their own states’ deep complicity in the terror networks in Syria. The NATO-orchestrated war on Syria is coming to an end. The offensive on Idlib is a decisive final chapter. 

It is documented that the Turkish government and its military intelligence were instrumental in acting as a covert conduit for weapons and mercenaries to infiltrate Syria. Turkish journalists have been jailed for exposing that collusion. Thus, the American CIA and Britain’s MI6 were crucially enabled by Turkey’s Erdogan in their plot to overthrow Syrian President Bashar Al Assad

TEHRAN SUMMIT:

At the Tehran Summit on 7 September’18, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani and Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed tactical differences with Turkey’s President Erdogan on approach towards military offensive in Idlib. President Rouhani and President Putin wanted a determined push to eliminate the last bastion of anti-government militants while President Erdogan was concerned to avoid a bloodbath and a worsening refugee crisis. Cornered in Idlib and faced with imminent defeat and cut off from the escape routes, the terrorists trying to flee across the northern border may land in Turkey posing immense security problem of blowback for Turkey.

Russian President Putin said in Tehran. “It is Syria’s sovereign right to take back full control of its national territory from foreign-backed terror gangs”. 

CHALLENGES FOR POLITICAL PROCESS AND RECONSTRUCTION:

1. Reconstruction is premature in the absence of political solution leading to constitutional reforms, free and fair elections as per UN security Council Resolution 2254.
2. Cost of reconstruction of Syria is more than $ 400 billion and the international community will not fund reconstruction until there is credible political horizon and transition in Syria.
3. Provide humanitarian assistance to the population so that the the refugees living abroad can return.
4. US does not support reconstruction aid until it does not see concrete results from a genuine political process that ends war and offers freedom to Syrian people. US is now chair of UNSC from 10 September’18.
5. Russia is lobbying for western aid funding while helping Assad to launch an assault on Idlib. A victory for Assad would put pressure on the Western Powers to help stabilize the country in order to avoid a resurgence of terrorism and mitigate a refugee crisis.
6. Iranian military presence in Syria will discomfort Israel and it might become a larger issue in future.