India Back In Strategic Game In Maldives

Background

In 2004 and 2005, violent protests led by Mohammad Nasheed erupted against 30 year autocratic rule by then President Maumoon Gayoom marked by allegations of human rights abuses and corruption. In elections held on 9 October 2008, Mohamed Nasheed defeated Maumoon Gayoom  to become the first multi-party democratically elected President ending 30 year dictatorship and Dr. Waheed Hassan Manik became the Vice-President. The Mohamed Nasheed government implemented many reforms and was awarded the “Anna Lindh Award” for bringing democracy to Maldives.

Maldives political crisis began as peaceful protests on 1 May 2011 led by The Maldivian People’s Party former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom over government’s mismanagement of the economy. On  23 December 2011, the opposition held a mass symposium with about 20,000 people in the name of protecting Islam, which they believed, Nasheed’s government was unable to maintain in the country. The event became the foundation of the campaign that brought social unrest within Maldives eventually culminating into resignation of President Mohamed Nasheed under disputed circumstances on 7 February 2012.

President Abdulla Yameen was elected President of Maldives in a disputed election that the opposition say was rigged and assumed office on 17 November 2013 by defeating former President Mohamed Nasheed in the second round of re-run after the initial election was annulled.

Maldives Political Crisis Deepens

After coming to power, President Abdulla Yameen was accused of eroding democracy, cracking down on dissent and jailing opposition leaders. In 2015, Mohamed Nasheed was sentenced to 13 years in jail on charges of terrorism. Nasheed was allowed to leave prison a year later to seek medical treatment abroad, and was granted asylum in U.K.

In 2016, the Maldives withdrew from the UK Commonwealth after the association of former British colonies threatened to suspend it for chipping away at democratic institutions. To the alarm of some opposition figures, President Yameen courted investment from China and Saudi Arabia.

On 1 February 2018, the simmering political crisis escalated when the Supreme Court, in an unexpected ruling, ordered the release of nine dissidents and the reinstatement of 12 legislators who were fired for defection from Yameen’s party. The ruling would have given the opposition a majority in the country’s legislative assembly. Abdulla Yameen refused to comply to Supreme Court ruling and instead declared a “State of Emergency”, giving sweeping powers which he used to order detention of Chief Justice Abdulla Saeed, arrested former President Maumoon Gayoom and fired police chief for upholding the court order. The United Nations, US, EU, India and others urged Yameens’s government to lift the state of emergency, first declared on 5 February’18 for 15 days, and to release opposition leaders from Jail, but he refused. Yameen claimed, he acted to prevent national security threat and constitutional crisis.

Inroads From China In Maldives.

1. China opened full fledged embassy in Maldives in 2011. Xi Jinping visits Maldives for the first time in September 2014.
2. China has been watchful of US presence in Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and US-India axis. The investment pattern in IOR littorals including Maldives, clearly points towards china ultimately trying to reduce its dependency on the security set-up controlled by US in the Sea Lanes of Communications (SLOCs) in the IOR. Through Maritime Silk Road (MSR), china wants to play a greater role in controlling the security of the Indian Ocean on the pretext of providing protection for MSR ports and related facilities. An endorsement of its role, china hopes, will come from the growing base of MSR members that it has been building.
3. India’s relation with Maldives nosedived after President Yameen ousted Pro India President Nasheed.  President Yameen has been systematically chipping away India’s influence in the country and supplanting it with china.
4. Maldives cancelled the contract of a GMR, an Indian company, for development of Maldives airport and gave it to china in 2015.
5. China got Maldives to pass the bill to seek full membership of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in November 2015. China also encouraged Maldives to play greater role in the Shanghai Cooperation Council (SCO). In turn, Maldives supports china’s bid to step up its role in SAARC.
6. In December’17, Maldives rushed through and signed Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with china through the Maldivian parliament at midnight, without any opposition members present. This was nothing short of a diplomatic coup by China.
7. The Maldives undertook measures at a surreptitious pace and through constitutional amendments to accommodate chinese interests 1) joining Belt and Road initiative 2) changing the law to allow Chinese ownership of Maldivian islands.
8. The country has been taking loans from China for infrastructure projects, housing etc. China offered aid for building “China Maldives friendship Bridge” connecting Male with the island airport Hulhule which was opened for traffic on 30 August’18 just before 23 Septeber’18 elections.
9. Maldivian government took the drastic step of suspending three local councillors for meeting with the Indian ambassador without seeking prior permission.

 President Yameen Concedes Election Defeat

In 23 Spetember’18 presidential election, Maldives President Yameen conceded defeat to the opposition candidate Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, who won by a margin of 16.7%. The election result is viewed as a set back for china as the new elected leader before the election said that he would review Chinese investment on major projects, agreements with the outgoing administration, specifically the terms of the agreement, as experts had warned of the risk of falling in debt trap. Ibrahim Solih’s ally Mohamed Nasheed, has repeatedly said he wants to renegotiate the deals. Police and military said, they will uphold the results of the election.

India’s Foreign Ministry statement:

 “This election marks not only the triumph of democratic forces in the Maldives, but also reflects the firm commitment to the values of democracy and the rule of law,” .

US State Department spokesperson said:

The U.S. congratulates Ibrahim Mohamed Solih on his victory in Maldives’ presidential election. As a fellow democracy, the United States stands ready to work closely with the next Maldivian government.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang:

China hopes “ Maldives will maintain the consistency and stability of their policies and create enabling atmosphere for the chinese enterprises operations there”

In the meanwhile, the Maldives' Opposition alliance says President Yameen is working on ways to remain in power despite having conceded defeat in the presidential election. Joint Opposition spokesman Ahmed Mahloof said that government officials say Gayoom is planning to complain to the Election Commission of Maldives about how the vote was conducted and try to pressure it to delay releasing the final results, due 30 September’18. Mahloof said Yameen is also trying to get police officers loyal to him to prepare intelligence reports saying the election was flawed.

India’s National Interest In Maldives

1. Maldives is strategically located along major Sea Lanes of Communications (SLOC) or supply lines in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), including the East-West shipping route that transports oil from Middle East to East Asia. To control SLOC’s or supply lines in IOR, India needs Maldives.
2. China’s assertive and often aggressive behavior has been viewed as a huge challenge for India because it opens up the likelihood of china dominating India’s immediate neighbourhood and sphere of influence. India needs a government in Maldives who follows “India First Policy”.
3. In absence of a major crisis, India could not have gathered the diplomatic muscle to set right a dictator in its background.
4. The prolonged crisis in Maldives gave India the support of the opposition in the Maldives, the international community, as well as greater domestic capital in India to push for a long-term solution.
5. The Maldives is a Muslim majority country. The Maldivian society has changed with deepening of its ties with Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has been funding various projects including universities and mosques. This has led to the penetration of radical and fundamentalists Wahhabi ideology in Maldives. Hundreds of men and women have left the Maldives to join ISIS & LeT. Their return and growing radicalism in Maldives is a threat to India in the future.
6. A democratically elected new government is best suited to combat non state actor like ISIS and LeT as these actors thrive in governance vacuums due to sudden change in leadership.
7. In 2009, India signed a pact with Maldives under pro-India President Nasheed, to set up a network of 26 radars across Maldives atoll to be linked to Indian Coastal command for Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA). India needs a government in Maldives who will adhere to “India First” policy. The present elected candidate, Ibrahim Solih is a close ally of former President Nasheed, who is Pro-India.

India, Iran, Afghanistan And Central Asia Evolving Dynamics

Strategic Importance Of Chabahar:

Chabahar port sits 72 kms from china backed Pakistan’s Gwadar port. India’s efforts to operationalize Chabahar port reflects Indian ambitions as a driver of infrastructure development and improved regional connectivity, particularly with Afghanistan. The project is seen as India’s larger geostrategic ambition to limit china-pakistan cooperation and expand India’s influence beyond South Asia. Chabahar port counters Gwadar port and is viewed as another sign of geostrategic competition between India and China in the region. India, Iran and Afghanistan are working towards integrated development of connectivity infrastructure including ports, road and railway networks to open greater opportunities for regional market access and integration of their economies.

In order to improve trans-regional connectivity, India signed a trilateral transit agreement with Afghanistan and Iran in May 2016 that enables passage for Indian exports to reach Afghanistan  through Iran bypassing pakistan. India flagged off the first shipment of wheat bound for Afghanistan via chabahar port on 29 October’17. India views Chabahar as a means to gain access to Central Asia to overcome its limitation of not having a contiguous border with Afghanistan, hampering the prospects of bilateral trade between India and Central Asia. Chabahar sits at a strategic location for the envisioned “International North South Transport Corridor” (INSTC), signed between India, Iran and Russia in 2000 that would establish transport connectivity between Europe, Central Asia and India. From Chabahar, an overland access to Zaranj in Afghanistan is also being built which is about 900 km from the newly built port. India has completed Zaranj-Delaram road which provides access to Afghanistan’s Garland highway, facilitating transport to Herat, Kandahar, Kabul and Mazar-e-Sharif. There is the Iran-Oman-India Pipeline, a $4.5 billion undersea natural gas corridor expected to transport 31.5 million cubic meters of natural gas per day to India.

Reality meets Expectations:

1. President of Afghanistan Ashraf Ghani met PM Narendra Modi in India on 19 September’18 to review and assess India-Afghanistan strategic partnership. The two leaders expressed determination to strengthen connectivity through Chabahar and air-freight corridor and deepen New Development Partnership in the field of infrastructure, human resources development and other capacity building projects in Afghanistan. President Ghani discussed peace & reconciliation process and the challenges of confronting terrorism and extremism faced by Afghanistan. India supports Afghan led, Afghan owned and Afghan controlled peace and reconciliation process that would enable united, peaceful democratic nation. The two countries organized India-Afghanistan Trade and Investment show in Mumbai on 12-15 September’18 to further boost trade between the two countries. The bilateral trade between the two countries crossed $ 1 billion mark. Since 2002, India has committed $ 2 billion for reconstruction of Afghanistan in the area of socio-economic development.
2. Union Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad led bilateral meeting with Deputy Prime Minister of Kazakhstan Askar Zhumaghaliyev on 20 September’18 and exchanged notes on deepening cooperation in Information Technology between India and Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan showed interest in sharing successful Digital India experiences, particularly digital delivery services.
3. Iranian Minister of Roads and Urban Development Abbas Akhoundi while participating in the Mobility Summit by Niti Aayog on 6 September’18 said, that Iran will hand over the strategic Chabahar port to India Ports Global Private Ltd (IPGPL) within a month for operations for a period of 18 months as per interim pact. Discussions between India’s UCO Bank and Iran’s Bank Pasargad are underway for payment mechanism by which US sanctions can be avoided.
4. India, Iran and Afghanistan held their first Tripartite meeting in Kabul on 11 September’18 during which implementation of the Chabahar port project, economic cooperation, counter-terrorism, counter-narcotics and continuing support to peace and reconciliation process led and owned by Afghanistan were discussed. The three officials also discussed facilitating the process of exploiting Chabahar capacity, removing possible barriers to trade and banking interactions between the three countries in the field of economic cooperation, pursuing tripartite agreements and engaging and cooperating to provide comprehensive security. The Indian delegation was led by Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale while the Iranian team was headed by deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Afghan deputy Foreign Minister Hekmat Khalil Karzai chaired the meeting.
5. India has stepped up its engagement with Central Asia to inject fresh impetus to trade, connectivity, people to people contacts, tourism, defence and security cooperation. Minister of External Affairs, Sushma Swaraj, visited three countries Kazakhstan, Kyrgynz Republic and Republic of Uzbekistan in Central Asian region from 2-5 August’18. The visit provided an opportunity to hold in-depth discussions with the political leadership on a wide range of global, regional and bilateral issues to advance India’s engagement with Central Asian Region.

 CHALLENGES

1. India is caught in the middle of a conflict between US & Iran due to US withdrawal from 2015 Iran nuclear deal on 8^th May’18 with the final round of sanction kicking off on 4 November’18. Iran is third largest source of crude oil. India is looking at various options to ensure that the relations with both the countries, especially energy security is not affected. Although India maintains that it is not bound to adhere to new sanctions since it is not endorsed by UN, the issue of payments is most contentious. India’s oil imports from Iran will be affected from the end of August 2018, as Iran offers Indian refiners a 60 day credit period on oil; sales, and the payment for cargoes loaded from the end of August will be due in November’18 when the second tranche of sanctions will commence. If no agreement on an alternate mechanism for funding is reached, India may cut or stop buying oil from Iran. Alice Wells, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for the bureau of South and Central Asian affairs had said in Washington that the US would continue discussions on the Iran sanctions with India.
2. Though initial phase of Chabahar will be handed over to India within a month for a period of 18 months, full operalization of the project remains a key concern due to US sanctions and instability in Afghanistan.
3. Though the Iran- India differences over Farzan B gas field have been resolved on the sidelines of International Energy Forum in April’18, the project remains a concern due to US sanction.
4. In May’16, the same year in which India signed the historic trilateral accord with Iran and Afghanistan to cooperate on Chabahar port project, Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan, Mehdi Honerdoost categorically commented: “ The deal is not finished, nor is it limited to just three partner countries, Pakistan and china are welcome to join”. Iran doesn’t want Pakistan to overtly shift to Saudi Arabia-led regional bloc evolving in the Middle East.
5. In a recent development, during Pakistan PM Imran Khan’s two day visit to Saudi Arabia and UAE on 19-20 Septmber’18, Pakistan invited Saudi Arabia to join China’s Belt and Road corridor projects inside Pakistan. Information Minister Fawad Chaudhary said “ Saudi delegation will be coming to Pakistan in the first week of October, including the Saudi Minister for finance and energy, and that should lay down a foundation for a very big partnership. The invitation to Saudi Arabia for partnership in China’s Belt and Road corridor could be seen as Pakistan’s counter to handover of Chabahar port to India by Iran next month and enhancing strategic competition in the region. If Saudi Arabia joins CPEC, it will upset its regional rival Iran.

Highlights of 23rd India-Russia Intergovernmental Commission Meeting

Maintaining momentum of high level exchanges, Minister of External Affairs Sushma Swaraj visited Russia on 14 September’18 for the 23^rd India-Russia Intergovernmental Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific, Technical and Cultural cooperation. The visit also sets the stage for 19^th India-Russia Annual summit and the first ever India-Russia business Summit scheduled early October’18. During the India-Russia Annual summit, the two countries are expected to sign the contract for S-400 air defence systems, ka-226T utility helicopters, frigates and assault rifles that India intends to purchase as part of armed forces modernization plan.

India attaches highest importance to its relations with Russia and enjoys special and privileged strategic partnership with Russia. The partnership covers a vast agenda covering all spheres of human activity, specifically, tourism and cultural exchanges. A festival of India covering 22 cities over a six months period is currently underway in Russia. Tourism has shown impressive growth and as a part of liberalizing visas, Russia has initiated process to grant electronic visas for Indian nationals.

In 2017, annual bilateral trade between the countries stood at $ 10.1  billion and two way investments crossed $ 30 billion ahead of 2025 target which now stand  revised to $ 50 billion target. Energy is traditional area of cooperation and the first shipment of LNG from Russia arrived in India this year. India wants to expand cooperation in Space and has identified new areas of cooperation such as Agriculture, Infrastructure, Transport, Science& Technology. To add a new dimension to strategic partnership, both the countries discussed the possibilities of working together on projects in a third country.

India expects bilateral relations will further gain momentum after Russian President Vladimir Putin visits India on 4 October’18 during which he will be discussing major energy and trade related issues with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

IDLIB QUAGMIRE

Syrian leader Bashar Assad has taken back much of the country since the start of Syrian civil war in 2011. Syria’s conflict has killed more than 3,50,000 people and forced millions out of their homes. In 2015 Assad looked to be losing the war but Russia helped to turn the tide of war in Bashar Assad’s favour by giving air support to Syrian ground troops against rebels and Islamic militants.

Idlib is the last remaining rebel strong hold of the syrian armed opposition in its north western province. The heavy consolidation of rebels in Idlib  was due to safe passage allowed to rebels in Idlib during Russia brokered cease fire in the south. There are about 10,000 battle hardened rebel fighters among 3 million population of Idlib. The prominent fighters comprise Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS) affiliated to Al  Qaeda.  The Syrian government backed by Russia and Iran, has pledged to drive the remaining rebel fighters out of Idlib and has begun taking steps towards full scale military operations in the territory. The Syrian Government forces dropped leaflets  on the area in the recent weeks calling on the rebels to lay down their weapons and reconcile with the state or face a crushing offensive.

The Syrian forces backed by Russia and Iran, have stepped up bombardment of the densely populated province since the beginning of this month that have prompted displacement of about 30,000 people as per UN’s humanitarian coordinating agency (OCHA).

INTERNATIONAL REACTION ON IDLIB OFFENSIVE

On 10 September’18, its humanitarian chief made an urgent appeal.

"There needs to be ways of dealing with this problem that don't turn the next few months in Idlib into the worst humanitarian catastrophe with the biggest loss of life in the 21st century," Mark Lowcock told reporters in Geneva.

"We're deeply concerned about this recent escalation of violence, which has resulted in the displacement of over 30,000 in the area. That's something we're monitoring very closely," OCHA spokesman David Swanson told AFP.

The US mission to UN said: “The United States considers any assault on Idlib to be a dangerous escalation of the conflict in Syria”.

The EU delegation to UN said: “ The world cannot give up on Syria. Now is the time to protect the people of Idlib”.

American political analyst Randy Martin comments:

“These crack terror squads have nowhere to go, no golden parachute, pension or retirement plan. No one wants them as refugees because they are truly bad guys. What do you do with an obsolete army with nowhere to go? Massacre them. or find them a foster home? And there’s no takers on the foster homes.”

 “The terror remnants remaining in Idlib are probably the officers and hardest battlefield soldiers, as well as the leadership of Erdogan’s and CIA’s hand-trained special forces.”

Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said :

Russia would support Syria until all illegally armed groups are totally eliminated. Of the three million civilians in Idlib, many of them are actually being held hostage by the terrorists as human shields, just as the people of East Aleppo, Homs, Maloula, East Ghouta and many other places, were previously before, being liberated by the Syrian army and its Russian, Iranian and Hezbollah allies. 

As per Sputnik:

This would explain why Turkey’s Erdogan, as well as the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, are trying to stall the military offensive on Idlib. They are trying to buy time in order to minimize the blow back from their own states’ deep complicity in the terror networks in Syria. The NATO-orchestrated war on Syria is coming to an end. The offensive on Idlib is a decisive final chapter. 

It is documented that the Turkish government and its military intelligence were instrumental in acting as a covert conduit for weapons and mercenaries to infiltrate Syria. Turkish journalists have been jailed for exposing that collusion. Thus, the American CIA and Britain’s MI6 were crucially enabled by Turkey’s Erdogan in their plot to overthrow Syrian President Bashar Al Assad

TEHRAN SUMMIT:

At the Tehran Summit on 7 September’18, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani and Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed tactical differences with Turkey’s President Erdogan on approach towards military offensive in Idlib. President Rouhani and President Putin wanted a determined push to eliminate the last bastion of anti-government militants while President Erdogan was concerned to avoid a bloodbath and a worsening refugee crisis. Cornered in Idlib and faced with imminent defeat and cut off from the escape routes, the terrorists trying to flee across the northern border may land in Turkey posing immense security problem of blowback for Turkey.

Russian President Putin said in Tehran. “It is Syria’s sovereign right to take back full control of its national territory from foreign-backed terror gangs”. 

CHALLENGES FOR POLITICAL PROCESS AND RECONSTRUCTION:

1. Reconstruction is premature in the absence of political solution leading to constitutional reforms, free and fair elections as per UN security Council Resolution 2254.
2. Cost of reconstruction of Syria is more than $ 400 billion and the international community will not fund reconstruction until there is credible political horizon and transition in Syria.
3. Provide humanitarian assistance to the population so that the the refugees living abroad can return.
4. US does not support reconstruction aid until it does not see concrete results from a genuine political process that ends war and offers freedom to Syrian people. US is now chair of UNSC from 10 September’18.
5. Russia is lobbying for western aid funding while helping Assad to launch an assault on Idlib. A victory for Assad would put pressure on the Western Powers to help stabilize the country in order to avoid a resurgence of terrorism and mitigate a refugee crisis.
6. Iranian military presence in Syria will discomfort Israel and it might become a larger issue in future.

HIGHLIGHTS OF INDIA US 2+2 DIALOGUE

The inaugural India US 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue between Minister of External Affairs Sushma Swaraj, Minister of Defence Nirmala Sitharaman and US counterpart Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, Secretary of Defence James Mattis on 6 September 2018 in New Delhi was a reflection of forward looking vision of India US partnership and promote synergy in diplomatic and security coordination and cooperation.

Being strategic partners, the Ministers expressed their committment to work together on regional and global issues, in bilateral, trilateral, and quadrilateral formats. The two sides further decided to  establish secure communication between the Minister of External Affairs Sushma Swaraj and the U.S. Secretary of State Michale Pompeo, and between the Minister of Defence Nirmala Sitharaman and the U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis, to help maintain regular high-level communication on emerging developments. The ministers discussed 1) Strengthening Defense and Security Partnership  2) Partnership in Indo Pacific and beyond  3) Promoting Prosperity and People to People ties.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

1. The Ministers reaffirmed the strategic importance of India’s designation as a Major Defense Partner (MDP) of the United States and committed to expand the scope of India’s MDP status.
2. The Ministers welcomed the inclusion of India by the United States among the top tier of countries entitled to license-free exports, re-exports, and transfers under License Exception Strategic Trade Authorization (STA-1).
3. The Ministers welcomed the signing of a Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) that will facilitate access to advanced defense systems and enable India to optimally utilize its existing U.S.-origin platforms.
4. The Ministers announced their readiness to begin negotiations on an Industrial Security Annex (ISA) that would support closer defense industry cooperation and collaboration. 
5. The two sides committed to the creation of a new, tri-services exercise and to further increase personnel exchanges between the two militaries and defense organizations.
6. The Ministers reviewed the recent growth of bilateral engagements in support of maritime security and maritime domain awareness, and committed to expand cooperation.
7. Ministers committed to start exchanges between the U.S. Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT) and the Indian Navy, underscoring the importance of deepening their maritime cooperation in the western Indian Ocean.
8. The Ministers reaffirmed their commitment to continue to encourage and prioritize co-production and co-development projects through the Defense Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI).
9. The Ministers welcomed the conclusion of a Memorandum of Intent between the U.S. Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) and the Indian Defence Innovation Organization – Innovation for Defence Excellence (DIO-iDEX).
10. The Ministers announced their intent to increase information-sharing efforts on known or suspected terrorists and to implement UN Security Council Resolution 2396 on returning foreign terrorist fighters and committed to enhance their ongoing cooperation in multilateral fora such as the UN and FATF.
11. They reaffirmed their support for a UN Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism that will advance and strengthen the framework for global cooperation.
12. The Ministers denounced any use of terrorist proxies in the region, and called on Pakistan to ensure that the territory under its control is not used to launch terrorist attacks on other countries.
13. On the eve of the 10-year anniversary of the 26/11 Mumbai attack, they called on Pakistan to bring to justice expeditiously the perpetrators of the Mumbai, Pathankot, Uri, and other cross-border terrorist attacks.
14. The Ministers welcomed the launch of a bilateral dialogue on designation of terrorists in 2017, which is strengthening cooperation and action against terrorist groups, including Al-Qaida, ISIS, Lashkar-e-Tayyiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad, Hizb-ul Mujahideen, the Haqqani Network, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, D-Company, and their affiliates.
15. The Ministers reviewed cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region and committed to work together and in concert with other partners toward advancing a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific region, based on recognition of ASEAN centrality and on respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity, rule of law, good governance, free and fair trade, and freedom of navigation and overflight.
16. Noting the importance of infrastructure and connectivity for the Indo-Pacific region, both sides emphasized the need to work collectively with other partner countries to support transparent, responsible, and sustainable debt financing practices in infrastructure development. 
17. The Ministers reaffirmed their shared commitment to a united, sovereign, democratic, inclusive, stable, prosperous, and peaceful Afghanistan. The United States acknowledged India’s longstanding and ongoing contributions of economic assistance to Afghanistan and also welcomed India’s enhanced role in Afghanistan’s development and stabilization. 
18. The United States welcomed India’s accession to the Australia Group, the Wassenaar Arrangement, and the Missile Technology Control Regime and reiterated its full support for India’s immediate accession to the Nuclear Suppliers Group. 
19. The Ministers recognized the importance and the potential for increasing bilateral trade, investment, innovation, and job creation in both countries.
20. Both sides looked forward to full implementation of the civil nuclear energy partnership and collaboration between Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL) and Westinghouse Electric Company for the establishment of six nuclear power plants in India. 
21. Secretary Pompeo and Secretary Mattis met PM Modi to convey the importance attached by President Trump to deepening strategic partnership between US and India, and US support for India’s role as a leading Global Power and Regional Security provider.
22. The next 2+2 meeting is to be held in the United States in 2019. 

BIMSTEC: PM MODI’S SAARC ALTERNATIVE

The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) is a regional organization comprising seven member states (Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Nepal and Bhutan) lying in the littoral and adjacent areas of the Bay of Bengal constituting a contiguous regional unity. It came into being on 6^th June 1997 through the Bangkok Declaration. Cooperation within BIMSTEC is based on respect for the principle of sovereign equality, territorial integrity, political independence, no interference in internal affairs, peaceful co-existence and mutual benefits. Cooperation within BIMSTEC will constitute an addition to and not be substitute for bilateral, regional or multilateral cooperation involving the member states. BIMSTEC is a bridge linking South and South East Asia. India is the founding member of BIMSTEC.

The regional group constitutes a bridge between South and South East Asia and represents a reinforcements of relations among these countries. BIMSTEC region is home to around 1.5 billion people which constitutes around 22% of the global population with combined GDP of 2.8 trillion economy. The region in the last 5 years have been able to sustain an average economic growth of 6.5% despite slow global economic growth.

BIMSTEC is a sector driven cooperative organization which include trade, technology, energy, transport, tourism, fisheries, agriculture, public health, poverty alleviation, counter-terrorism, environment, culture, people to people contact and climate change.

BIMSTEC AN ALTERNATIVE TO SAARC

The 19^th SAARC summit which was scheduled in Pakistan 0n 14-16 November 2016 was boycotted by India followed by Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Bhutan, Sri Lanka and Maldives following rising diplomatic tensions after Uri terrorist attack on 18 September 2016 in J&K, culminating in an indefinite postponement of the summit. Also, Pakistan had been blocking key Anti-Terror, Free Trade and Connectivity initiatives like SAARC Motor Vehicles and SAARC Railway agreement. In this scenario, India had to find an alternative forum to achieve its regional development goals and enhanced trade with more connected ASEAN market and BIMSTEC was the right forum.

BIMSTEC fits very well with the “Neighbourhood First” Policy where five countries from South Asia and two from South East Asia, ASEAN countries form a natural land and sea link between South Asia and South East Asia. It also fits well with the priority of Indian government to give an impetus to North East region of India through land connectivity to Thailand via Myanmar as well as through the Bay of Bengal. Bay of Bengal is a common space for connectivity and security for India and with strong cultural, linguistic and people to people links between the countries, BIMSTEC becomes a subset of growth region in the “Indo-Pacific”.

The biggest highlights during 8th BRICS Summit on 15-16 October 2016 in Goa was BRICS-BIMSTEC Outreach Summit. This indicated importance India gave to BIMSTEC as an alternative to SAARC.

FOURTH BIMSTEC SUMMIT

Seven member countries met in Kathmandu, Nepal on 30-31 August 2018 for the Fourth BIMSTEC Summit. The leaders discussed Poverty alleviation, Transport & Communications (Connectivity), Trade & Investment, Counter Terrorism & Transnational Crime, Environment & Disaster Management, Climate Change, Energy, Technology, Agriculture, Fisheries, Blue Economy, People to People contacts, Cultural Cooperation and Tourism

KEY HIGHLIGHTS:

1. Member states stressed the need for a fair, just, rule-based, equitable and transparent international order and reaffirmed faith in multilateralism with the United Nations at the Centre and the rule based international trading system.
2. Member states strongly condemned terrorist attacks in all parts of the world including in BIMSTEC countries and terrorism in all its form and manifestations.
3. Affirmed that the fight against terrorism should target not only terrorists, terror organizations and networks but also identify and hold accountable States and non-State entities that encourage, support or finance terrorism, provide sanctuaries to terrorists and terror groups.
4. Commitment to combat terrorism and devise a comprehensive approach which include preventing financing of terrorists and terrorist actions from territories under their control, blocking recruitment and cross-border movement of terrorists, countering radicalization, countering misuse of internet for terrorism and dismantling terrorist safe havens.
5. Member countries reposed faith unequivocally in the principles and purposes of the Charter of the United Nations and strengthen the multilateral system by reforming its rules, institutions and instruments to make it relevant to contemporary global challenges and present a collective voice to safeguard collective interests for a fair, just, rule-based, equitable and transparent world order.
6. Prepared a preliminary draft of the BIMSTEC Charter for the organization, defining a long-term vision and priorities for cooperation, roles and responsibilities of different layers of institutional structure and decision-making processes, and to develop the Rules of Procedure (RoP) for the BIMSTEC Mechanisms.
7. Directed the relevant Ministries/national agencies of respective governments to explore the possibility of establishing a BIMSTEC Development Fund (BDF), which will be utilized for research and planning of BIMSTEC and financing of projects, programmes and other activities of BIMSTEC Centers.
8. Reiterated their commitment to the eradication of poverty in the Bay of Bengal Region by 2030 in line with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and called for effective implementation of the BIMSTEC Poverty Plan of Action.
9. Member states expressed satisfaction on the draft BIMSTEC Master Plan on Transport Connectivity and called for its early adoption. 
10. To establish a Working Group to deal with Information Technology and Communications related matters to provide greater access and affordable high speed internet and mobile communications to the people of the region. India to host BIMSTEC Ministerial Conclave at the India Mobile Congress 2018 to be held in New Delhi from 25-27 October 2018 on the theme “New digital Horizons: Connect, Create, Innovate”.
11. Renewed commitment to an early conclusion of BIMSTEC Free Trade Area (FTA) negotiations and expressed satisfaction on the progress of negotiation on the Agreement on Trade in Goods and the Agreement on Customs Cooperation.
12. Agreed to revitalize the activities of BIMSTEC Business Forum and BIMSTEC Economic Forum to further strengthen Government–Private sector cooperation for the promotion of trade and investment and to continue negotiation for finalization of the modalities for the BIMSTEC Visa Facilitation.
13. India to host BIMSTEC Start Up Conclave in December 2018.
14. Member countries look forward to the signing and ratification of the BIMSTEC Convention on Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters. Expressed satisfaction that many Member States have ratified the BIMSTEC Convention on Cooperation in Combating International Terrorism, Transnational Organized Crime and Illicit Drug Trafficking.
15. Expressed determination to strengthen cooperation and coordination among the law enforcement, intelligence and security agencies; and decided to hold meetings at the level of BIMSTEC Home Ministers and continue with the BIMSTEC National Security Chiefs meetings as part of promoting cooperation and coordination on counter terrorism and transnational crimes. Thailand to host the Third Meeting of the BIMSTEC National Security Chiefs in March 2019.
16. Remained committed to provide uninterrupted and affordable power supply for the economic development of people in the region and welcomed the signing of MOU on BIMSTEC Grid Interconnection. Member states called for an early operationalization of the BIMSTEC Energy Centre in order to strengthen energy cooperation in the region.
17. Member states agreed to enhance cooperation for development, access and sharing of affordable technologies for Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises by signing MOU on the Establishment of BIMSTEC Technology Transfer Facility in Sri Lanka.
18. Decided to deepen cooperation in the agricultural and allied sectors, including crops, livestock and horticulture, farm machinery and harvest management so as to increase productivity and profitability of agricultural produce in a sustainable manner.
19. The member states emphasized the need to enhance cultural exchange among Member States to further strengthen the historic cultural ties among people, promote mutual respect and tolerance for cultural diversity by connecting the thread of Buddhism and establishing a Buddhist Circuit.
20. Bangladesh to hold the 2nd BIMSTEC Ministerial Meeting on Culture and 1st BIMSTEC Cultural Festival.
21. Member states agreed to take concrete steps to promote Intra-BIMSTEC tourism.
22. Stressed on continued cooperation in conservation, management and sustainable use of marine resources in the region and to deepen cooperation in fisheries to ensure food security and improve livelihoods of people in our region.

INDIA’S BALANCING ACT WITH US, IRAN AND RUSSIA

SEVERED DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS BETWEEN US AND IRAN:

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or the Iran nuclear deal was signed on 14 July 2015 between Iran, the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council—China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States—plus Germany) and the European Union. Under the agreement:

1.        Iran agreed to eliminate its stockpile of medium-enriched uranium.

2.       cut its stockpile of low-enriched uranium by 98%

3.       reduce by about two-thirds the number of its gas centrifuges for 13 years.

4.       For the next 15 years, Iran will only enrich uranium up to 3.67%.

5.       Iran agreed not to build any new heavy-water facilities for the same period of time.

6.     Uranium-enrichment activities will be limited to a single facility using first-generation centrifuges for 10 years.

7.   To monitor and verify Iran's compliance with the agreement, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will have regular access to all Iranian nuclear facilities.

8.   In return for verifiably abiding by its commitments, Iran will receive relief from U.S., European Union, and United Nations Security Council economic sanctions.

In January 2016, The United States lifted most of its sanctions against Iran after a UN nuclear watchdog International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that Tehran complied with a nuclear weapons deal. The deal allowed Iran to access $100 billion which was seized by the international community when Tehran continued to develop its own nuclear deterrent. 

On 8 May 2018, President Trump announced that the United States would withdraw from the agreement. Announcing his withdrawal from Iran Nuclear deal President Donald Trump said:

“The Iranian regime is the leading state sponsor of terror. It exports dangerous missiles, fuels conflicts across the Middle East, and supports terrorists proxies such as Hezbollah, Hamas, the Taliban and Al-Qaida. Over the years, Iran and its proxies have bombed American Embassies and military installations, murdered hundreds of American service members, and kidnapped, imprisoned, and tortured American citizens. The Iranian regime has funded its long reign of chaos and terror by plundering the wealth of its own people. No action taken by the regime has been more dangerous than its pursuit of nuclear weapons — and the means of delivering them”.

In fact, the deal allowed Iran to continue enriching uranium and — over time — reach the brink of a nuclear breakout. The deal lifted crippling economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for very weak limits on the regime’s nuclear activity — and no limits at all on its other malign behaviour, including its sinister activities in Syria, Yemen, and other places all around the world”.

“In other words, at the point when the United States had maximum leverage, this disastrous deal gave this regime — and it’s a regime of great terror — many billions of dollars, some of it in actual cash — a great embarrassment to me as a citizen and to all citizens of the United States”.

“Today, we have definitive proof that this Iranian promise was a lie. Last week, Israel published intelligence documents — long concealed by Iran — conclusively showing the Iranian regime and its history of pursuing nuclear weapons”.

In a few moments, I will sign a presidential memorandum to begin reinstating U.S. nuclear sanctions on the Iranian regime. We will be instituting the highest level of economic sanction. Any nation that helps Iran in its quest for nuclear weapons could also be strongly sanctioned by the United States.

As we exit the Iran deal, we will be working with our allies to find a real, comprehensive, and lasting solution to the Iranian nuclear threat. This will include efforts to eliminate the threat of Iran’s ballistic missile program, to stop its terrorist activities worldwide, and to block its menacing activity across the Middle East.

After withdrawal from Iran Nuclear deal, President re-imposed sanctions on Iran with immediate effect. The sanctions affect any purchase of U.S. bank notes by Iran's government, Iran's trade in precious metals like gold, graphite, aluminium, steel, coal and software in industrial processes, Iran's automotive sector, transactions related to the Iranian Rial, and Iran's issuing of sovereign debt, according to the White House. The sanctions that will be re-imposed in November 2018 include those on Iran's port operators and energy, shipping and shipbuilding sectors, any of Iran's petroleum-related transactions, and foreign financial institutions with the Central Bank of Iran. 

US imposes sanctions on Russia:

On August 2, 2017, the President signed into law the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) which among other things, imposes new sanctions on Iran, Russia, and North Korea. It also includes sanctions against countries that engage in significant transactions with Russia’s Defence   and Intelligence sectors.

In April 2018, the Trump administration unleashed sanctions against seven Russian oligarchs with ties to President Vladimir Putin along with 12 companies they own or control. The measures were also aimed at 17 senior Russian government officials and the state-owned Russian weapons trading company, Rosoboron export, which has long-standing ties to Syria and its subsidiary, the Russian Financial Corporation Bank. The sanctions by the US were to punish Putin's inner circle for interfering in the 2016 election and other ongoing aggressions across the globe in Crimea, Ukraine and Syria.

INDIA US 2+2 DIALOGUE

India will host the first ever India US 2+2 dialogue on 6 September 2018 in New Delhi between External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj, Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and  US counterpart Secretary of State Michael R. Pompeo, Secretary of Defence James N. Mattis.  The two sides are expected to share perspectives on strengthening their strategic and security ties and exchange views on a range of bilateral, regional and global issues of mutual interest.

According to Randall Schriver, the assistant secretary of defense for Asian and Pacific security affairs at the U.S. Department of Defense, the agenda from US perspective could be to advance relationship by discussions on strategic and regional issues like China, free & open Indo Pacific, approach towards South East Asia, Afghanistan, foundational or enabling agreements for bilateral military co-operation 1)  Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) and 2) Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geo-spatial Cooperation (BECA), expand the scope of military exercises to first ever three service exercise later this year.

It looks COMCASA is close to conclusion with some   reservation on Indian side regarding sovereignty. United States and India have already concluded the first  enabling agreements, the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) which allows the armed forces of both sides to mutually access logistical support for compensation.

India has  two sticking points to be discussed with US :

1)  Reducing Oil import from Iran as the second phase of sanctions by US start in November 2018. India has strategic interest in Chabahar, Central Asia and Afghanistan and Iran is key to achieve strategic objectives.

2) India has concluded negotiations to buy S-400 Air Defence System from Russia and CAATSA threatens India with US sanctions. About 70% of India’s defence equipments and weapons are of Russian origin and it depends on maintenance and spares on Russia.

In July 2018 while addressing media, Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said “CAATSA (sanctions law) is not a UN act, it's a US act, we have spoken on the S-400 for years, not just today”. She further said, "Our defence relation with Russia has endured several decades and we have conveyed about it to a US Congressional delegation which visited India recently”.

US and India are expected to hold discussions to strengthen strategic, security and defence co-operation and jointly address challenges in Indo Pacific region and beyond.