India, Russia sign $ 5.4 billion S-400 deal. Can India overcome CAATSA?

India has asserted its strategic autonomy by signing a $ 5.4 billion defence deal with Russia for the procurement of Almaz-Antey S-400 Triumf air defence systems during the 19^th India-Russia Annual Summit on 5 October’18. What has not been made public is the exact number of systems sold, including the number of launchers and types of missiles to be delivered under the contract and other anticipated deals like Kamov 226T helicopters, frigates, leasing of nuclear submarine, AK 103 Kalashnikov assault rifles.

The S-400 is touted as one of the most advanced and effective long range interceptor based air defence system in the world. The standard S-400 battery consists of four transporter erector launchers (TELs) with four launch tubes per TEL, in addition to target acquisition and fire control radar system and a command post. In the Russian military, two batteries make up a S-400 battalion, whereas a S-400 regiment consists of two battalions.

In comparison to its predecessor, the S-300, the S-400 air defence system features an improved radar system and updated software and can fire four new types of Surface to Air (SAM) missiles in addition to the S-300’s 48N6E, a vertical tube launched single stage SAM with a range of 150 kms and the improved 48N6E2 missile with a reported range of 195 kms. The S-400 is also armed with an improved variant of 48N6E2 missile with a range of 250 kms. The air defence system can also fire two additional missiles, the 9M96E and 9M96E2 with respective ranges of 40 km and 120 km. The latest S-400’s latest and most advanced missile system, the 40N6 SAM has operational range of 400 kms and can destroy targets up to an altitude of 30 kms. The S-400 air defence systems are expected to be fully integrated with the Indian Air Force’s Integrated Air Command and Control System (IACCS), an automated command and control system for air defence, which integrates the service’s air and ground based air sensors and weapon systems. With the depleting squadrons of Indian Air Force, the task of air defence can now be allocated to missiles and use fighter aircrafts for more offensive tasks.

Complication of India-Russia S-400 deal and CAATSA Sanctions

The conclusion of the agreement will complicate India’s deepening strategic relations with US, given the US threat to impose economic sanctions on countries engaging in “Significant Transactions” with Russian defence industry under Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).

Section 231, CAATSA: requires that the president impose sanctions on any entity that “ engages in a significant transaction with . . . the defense or intelligence sectors of the Government of the Russian Federation”

  

Section 235, describes the sanctions that may be imposed, which include, but are not limited to, prohibiting “any transactions in foreign exchange that are subject to the jurisdiction of the United States and in which the sanctioned person has any interest” and forbidding “any transfers of credit or payments between financial institutions or by, through, or any financial institution, to the extent that such transfers or payments are subject to the jurisdiction of the United States and involve any interest of the sanctioned person”

In September’18, the US imposed sanctions on People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) Equipment Development Department (EDD) for China’s procurement of S-400 systems and Su-35S multirole fighter aircraft.

US preserves the transformed US-India Relationship and Partnership

1. Secretary of Defence James Mattis and his predecessors in Trump Administration invested lot of political capital to shape National Security Strategy and National Defence Strategy to give India prominent standing, recast the US approach towards Indo-Pacific to formalize India’s integration into Asian balance of power.
2. US reoriented US policy towards South Asia, pressing hard against Pakistan’s continuing support of terrorism.
3. US liberalized access to advanced US technologies like Sea Guardian Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV’s) and granted Strategic Trade Authorization (STA 1) status to India.
4. Secretary of Defence James Mattis urged US congress to exempt India, Indonesia and Vietnam from sanctions obligations associated with CAATSA. The Congress responded in Section 1294 of National Defence Authorization Act 2019 (NDAA 2019) by permitting the US President to exercise the waiver authority under CAATSA, if he can certify that the waiver is fundamentally in US national security interests, that the countries offered relief are taking demonstrable steps to reduce their defence dependence on Russia. The passage of this amended legislation opened the door for potential waiver on handful of countries important to the US.

Ramifications of CAATSA sanctions on India-US Relationship

1. Russia has been the largest defence supplier of military equipments and hardware to India since 1960’s, accounting to about 68% of India’s arms imports, according to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). India depends on Russia for spare parts and maintenance of its Russian military assets, latest technologies and it cannot compromise its National Interests and Strategic Autonomy.
2. President Trump administration has articulated various National Security policies that treated India as a centre piece of both its South Asian and larger Indo-Pacific strategies. Targeting India by imposing CAATSA threatens to undermine the US larger objective of working with India.

Resolution of the Complication due to CAATSA

1. Given the first delivery of S-400 from Russia to India is not expected until October 2020, the US government does not have to react to the conclusion of the S-400 contract immediately since this will likely not be the last Indian purchase of Russian military equipment despite India diversifying its military imports. India’s arms imports from US rose by 557% in the last decade according to SIPRI. India should move forward on one of the several major defence acquisition programs it has discussed with the US over the years, thus enabling India to secure the capabilities it has always wanted while giving President Donald Trump an incentive to speedily issue the waiver that India needs.
2. India’s bilateral trade policy disputes and its overall restrictiveness matters the most to President Donald Trump. India has expressed its willingness to work on fair and reciprocal Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the US. Quickly resolving trade disputes in economic arena will expedite the waiver process.