INDIA, CHINA, ASEAN CONUNDRUM
It
is important, Indo-Pacific region remains peaceful and stable for unimpeded
trade and commerce where all countries have equal access by way of freedom of
navigation and overflight. For common prosperity and security, all nations
should obey rule based international order where sovereignty, territorial
integrity is respected irrespective of size and strength of the nations. All
disputes should be resolved through dialogue in accordance with
universally recognised principles of international law, including the 1982
United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), International Civil
Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the International Maritime Organization (IMO)
and not by intimidation and force.
In the
Indo-Pacific, China has unilaterally changed the status quo in maritime Asia by
militarizing Paracel & Spratley islands in South China Sea (SCS) and
transformed artificial islands into burgeoning military outposts. China’s build
up of armed forces and installations on disputed islands in the South China Sea
highlights twin ambitions of solidifying expansive territorial claims and
demonstrating Beijing’s growing military reach out to the Second Island Chain
and beyond. The issue of ownership, control, use and exploitation
of oil, gas, mineral and fishery resources in the South China Sea has
emerged as a major dispute between
China and several
ASEAN countries like Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei and Malaysia. Through
militarization of South China Sea, Beijing seeks control over the vital
economic zones in the Indo-Pacific. The South China Sea is a critical trade
route as over $5 trillion
of sea-borne trade pass through its shipping lanes—$1 trillion of U.S. goods
and about 40 percent of China’s transits the region.
In April
2018, People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) vessels challenged Australian naval
ships as they transited the strategic waterway toward Vietnam. In March 2018, a
U.S. Navy vessel conducted a freedom of
navigation operation (FONOP) in the contested waters. Following the FONOP, China
carried out combat naval exercises and set up territorial defence equipment in
the Spratly archipelago. These forceful counter moves show hegemonic designs
and calculated campaign by China to reassert and preserve its perceived
sovereignty and territorial integrity in SCS.
China
illegally seized Scarborough Shoal in 2012;
brazenly reclaimed over 3,200 acres of land over the
next five years despite a 2002 agreement with the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (ASEAN) not to change any geographic features in the SCS; broke
the 2015 agreement between Xi Jinping and Barack
Obama to not militarize these Chinese-occupied geographic features; and
blatantly disregarded the landmark ruling by the International Tribunal of the
Permanent Court of Arbitration in 2016.
To the East, the Malacca Strait and South China Sea connect
India to the Pacific and to most of major regional partners: ASEAN, Japan,
Republic of Korea, China and the US. India’s trade and
overseas investment is growing rapidly in this region. Investment in ASEAN
alone accounts for over 20% and 40% of the trade passes through SCS. ONGC Videsh
Limited (OVL) entered into an agreement with Vietnam to prospect in oil blocks
127 and 128 off the Paracel islands, which fall within the exclusive economic
zone of Vietnam. The Indian Ocean carries 90% of
India’s trade and energy sources. It is also the life line of global commerce. The
Chinese navy’s assertive forays into the Indian Ocean Region where it sailed with submarines and its recent
acquisition of naval bases
in Djibouti and Gwadar have created a ‘Strategic
Convergence’ between India, Japan, the U.S.
and Australia. Though the political semantics of the four countries’ policy
vis-a-vis China remains unclear, the coming together of maritime democracies was
evident in the recently held ‘Quad’ talks ahead of
the ASEAN and East Asia Summit in Manila 2017. The four countries agreed that
‘free,
open and prosperous Indo-Pacific region serves long term interests of all
countries in the region’. The Quad grouping is
very much a work in progress and has not yet materialized as a robust coalition
due to the fact that each country will have to factor into their strategic
calculus its effects on
their relationship with China.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on
the other hand, advocated a free, open, united and inclusive
Indo-Pacific vision in his keynote address at Shangri La Dialogue in
Singapore on 1 June, 2018.
He said:
“Three years
ago, in Mauritius, I described our vision in one word – SAGAR, which means ocean in Hindi. And, SAGAR stands for Security and Growth for All in the Region and,
that is the creed we follow to our East, now even more vigorously through our
Act East Policy by seeking to join India, especially her East and North-East,
with our land and maritime partners to the east”.
“Today, we are being called to rise above divisions and
competition to work together. The ten countries of South East Asia connect
the two great oceans in both the geographical and civilizational sense.
Inclusiveness, openness and ASEAN centrality and unity,
therefore, lie at the heart of the new Indo-Pacific. India does not see the
Indo-Pacific Region as a strategy or as a club of limited members. Nor as a
grouping that seeks to dominate. And by no means do we consider it as directed
against any country. A geographical definition, as such, cannot be. India's
vision for the Indo-Pacific Region is, therefore, a positive one. And, it has
many elements.”
“that vast expanse
stretching from the east coast of Africa to Western Pacific—based on rules and norms.
“We will promote a democratic and rules-based international order, in which all
nations, small and large, thrive as equal and sovereign. We will work with
others to keep our seas, space and airways free and open; our nations secure
from terrorism; and our cyber space free from disruption and conflict. We will
keep our economy open and our engagement transparent. We will share our
resources, markets and prosperity with our friends and partners. We will seek a
sustainable future for our planet, as through the new International Solar
Alliance together with France and other partners. This is how we wish ourselves
and our partners to proceed in this vast region and beyond. The ancient wisdom
of the region is our common heritage,”
US secretary of Defence James
Mattis during Shangri La Dialogue echoed Prime Minister Modi’s call and
supported his vision:
He said: “As Prime Minister Modi
reflected last night, a commitment to common values must be a foundation or
even the foundation upon which we build a shared destiny.
The US
Secretary of Defence, also acknowledged India’s importance in the American
strategy for the Indo-Pacific. “In South Asia we are strengthening our
partnerships, particularly with India. Prime Minister Modi’s remarks last
evening underscored India’s role as a leader and responsible steward in the
Indo-Pacific region.
“The U.S.
values the role India can play in regional and global security, and we view the
U.S.-India relationship as a natural partnership between the world’s two
largest democracies, based on a convergence of strategic interests, shared
values, and respect for a rule-based international order.
“
ACT EAST POLICY” ACHIEVEMENTS:
The
real proactive Foreign Policy transformation took place during the visit of PM
Narendra Modi to 12th ASEAN-INDIA summit and 9th East
Asia Summit at Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar in November 2014 when he renamed the “Look
East Policy” to “Act East Policy”. PM Modi’s successful
“Act East Policy” achievements are listed below:
1) The policy which was originally
conceived as an economic initiative, has gained political, strategic and
cultural dimensions including establishment of institutional mechanisms for
dialogue and cooperation. India has upgraded its relations to comprehensive/strategic
partnership with Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Japan, Republic of Korea (ROK),
Australia, Singapore and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and
forged close ties with all countries in the Indo-Pacific region. Further, apart
from ASEAN, ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and East Asia Summit (EAS), India has
also been actively engaged in regional fora for bridging South and South East
Asia such as Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic
Cooperation (BIMSTEC), Mekong Ganga Cooperation (MGC), and Indian Ocean Rim
Association (IORA).
2) India has revived and reinvigorated India's
relations with ASEAN as well as expanded the country's engagement beyond the
region to encompass the Koreas in the North to Australia and New Zealand in the
South, and from neighbouring Bangladesh to Fiji and Pacific Island countries in
the Far East.
3) PM Modi, in all his international engagements has
focused on raising global awareness of India’s civilizational history, maritime
history and harnessed India’s soft power such as
Buddhism, tourism, people-to-people contacts, and cultural ties as
regional link for Indo-Pacific.
4) India has made determined efforts to reach out to ASEAN
and other countries in East Asia to get greater manoeuvrability and strategic
space and provide an impetus to the several initiatives launched by the
government for rapid economic development of the country. These initiatives
include 'Make in India', 'Skill India', 'Digital India', promoting energy
security, connectivity projects, creating infrastructure, and building smart
cities. These endeavours resulted in mutually beneficial engagements generating
greater flexibility and political space to contend with the increasing assertiveness
and intractability of China over the past many years.
5) India’s growing engagement has
resulted in deeper trade partnerships. India has Comprehensive Economic
Partnership Agreements with Singapore, Japan and South Korea, Free Trade
Agreements with ASEAN and is now actively participating in concluding the
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)Agreement in November 2018. RCEP, which
groups the ASEAN 10 nations and China,
Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and India, represents 40 percent of
the world population and 23 percent of the world gross domestic product (GDP,
pegged at $17 trillion). India-ASEAN
trade & investment relations have been growing steadily with ASEAN being
India’s 4thlargest trading partner. India’s trade with ASEAN
countries valued to USD 72 billion in 2016-17.
6) India invited the ten
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) leaders for the January 2018
Republic Day parade and celebrations marking 25 years of dialogue partnership,
15 years of summit-level interaction, and five years of strategic partnership
including India ASEAN commemorative summit on the theme, 'Shared Values, Common
Destiny'.
7) In December 2017, India held “Connectivity Summit” with 10 ASEAN
nations to accelerate major connectivity projects: land, air, sea, digital,
people to people, civilizational giving impetus to regional integration. The summit themed: “Powering
Digital and Physical Linkages for Asia in the 21st Century,”
8) There is rapid and
visible progress in completion of India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral (IMT)
Highway and the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project (KMMTTP). The
Trilateral Highway is expected to be operational by 2019 and is set have ripple
effects on economic fortunes of people living
in India’s north-eastern states. IMT
could be a bridgehead for North-eastern states to booming markets in ASEAN
countries. Plans to extend Trilateral Highway to Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam are
shaping up, and will open new vistas for enhanced trade, tourism and
people-to-people contacts between India and ASEAN.
9) There is a plan to expand Singapore airlines operations in
Guwahati, Assam and start direct flights from Vietnam to India. Other ASEAN
nations plan to start direct flights between
Tier 1 and 2 cities of India.
10) The real action will be
in the area of maritime connectivity as the bulk of India-ASEAN trade flows
through sea lanes. The ASEAN India maritime transport cooperation agreement is
being negotiated and finalised. India is looking to set up a maritime transport
working group of Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam to explore the
feasibility of shipping networks. Plans to interlink islands in India and ASEAN
countries for improving maritime connectivity shows future possibilities.
11) At the India ASEAN
connectivity summit, India unveiled plans to boost cruise tourism from 80
ships per year to 900 per year. Cruises from India can start from Mumbai or
Cochin and can go to Thailand, Philippines, Singapore and Cambodia.
12) Digital connectivity is the next big frontier in
India-ASEAN connectivity. India has already shared with ASEAN an integrated
approach to digitally intermesh India and ASEAN states, which will involve
setting up of a regional high-capacity fibre optic network, a National Rural
Broadband Network and Digital Villages in Remote Areas. This focus on digital
connectivity has been showcased at ASEAN-India ICT Expo in December 2017 in
Jakarta
13) President of Republic Korea was on a
4 day visit to India from 8 July 2018. India and South Korea shared commitment
to values of democracy, open society and liberal international order. Both
countries signed 11 agreements/MOU’s in the area of Cultural Exchange program,
co-operation in development in cutting edge technologies, upgraded
Comprehensive Economic Partnership (CEPA), Science & Technology, Railway
Research, Biotechnology, ICT and telecommunications, cooperation in MSME’s, Industrial
& Investment relations with Gujarat and Queen Suriratna Memorial Project.
Suriratna was a legendary princess of Ayodhya who went to Korea in 48 AD and
married king Kim-Suro.
14) South Korea is an indispensable
partner in our “Act East Policy” and “Make In India” initiative. PM Narendra
Modi and President of Republic of Korea jointly inaugurated a new manufacturing
unit of Samsung India Electronics in Noida- one of the world’s largest mobile
phone factory. L&T and
Hanwha Techwin signed a $ 696 million deal in April 2017 to jointly manufacture
K9 Vajra T self-propelled 155 mm howitzer in a boost for “Make-in India” initiative. The first batch
of Howitzers were delivered to Army in May 2018.
15) India Japan ties have been on an
upswing because of excellent chemistry between PM Shinzo Abe and PM Narendra
Modi. The bilateral visits of both Prime Ministers have resulted in Japanese
commitment to invest $ 35 billion dollars in India over next 5 years including
in some flagship initiatives such as smart cities, Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor
and Shinkansen bullet train between Mumbai and Ahmedabad. The crowning
achievement of Abe's visit was the decision to enter into a civilian nuclear
deal with India in November 2016.
16) India plans to close a $ 1.65 billion
government to government deal (G2G) deal to buy 12 ShinMaywa US-2i Search &
Rescue Amphibious aircraft before India Japan annual summit in September 2018. Mahindra Defence Systems, part of the Mahindra Group, signed
a pact with Japan-based ShinMaywa Industries for manufacturing and assembling
of amphibious aircraft ShinMaywa US-2 in India.
17) PM Modi
travelled to Fiji and interacted with the 12 leaders and representatives of the
Pacific Island nations. It was the first visit by an Indian prime minister in
33 years. The visit was followed by a conference in India with 14 Pacific
Island countries in August 2015. Going forward, these contacts will stand India
in good stead in providing it with critical support on issues of global concern
and interest such as reform and expansion of the UN Security Council and
progress on India's proposal for concluding a Comprehensive Convention on
International Terrorism.
18) Dokalam standoff
with China was best managed crisis by India. India’s strategic defiance to Chinese bullying and
firmness with which India responded to China following change of status quo
raised India’s stature in the eyes of China. China sought to alter the status
quo and build a road that could have given it a strategic advantage over
“chicken neck” that connects India’s north east to the rest of the country. The
73 day standoff was de-escalated without firing a single bullet.
19) PM Modi and
Chinese President Xi Jinping met on 27-28 April 2018 in China’s Wuhan city for an
informal ice-breaking summit to “reset” ties after Dokalam Standoff. The two leaders exchanged views on overarching issues of
bilateral and global importance, and to elaborate their respective visions and
priorities for national development in the context of the current and future
international situation. The two leaders underscored the importance of
maintaining peace and tranquility in all areas of the India-China border region
in the larger interest of the overall development of bilateral relations. They
issued strategic guidance to their respective militaries to strengthen
communication in order to build trust and mutual understanding and implement
various Confidence Building Measures agreed upon between the two sides.
20) As a follow up to
the Wuhan Summit, a high level 10 member Chinese military delegation led by Lt Gen Liu Xiaowu,
Deputy Commander of Western Theatre Command met Indian Army Vice Chief Lt Gen
Devraj Anbu on 4 July 2018 to strengthen military relationship between them.
21) US Secretary of
Defence James Mattis on 31 May 2018 renames US Pacific Command to US Indo
Pacific Command to recognize increasing connectivity between Indian and Pacific
Oceans and America’s commitment to the Indo-Pacific. This is a largely symbolic move to signal
India's importance to the US military amid heightened tensions with China over
the militarisation of the South China Sea.
22) India was put at
a center stage through use of phrase “Indo-Pacific” during 31st ASEAN
and related summits in November 2017 in Manila, Philippines. On 11 July 2018, the Trump administration defended
the use of "Indo-Pacific" phrase instead of "Asia Pacific",
saying it captures the importance of the rise of India with which the US has
strong and growing ties.
23) India and Japan
have expressed interest in developing east cost port of Trincomalee in
Srilanka. India has also expressed interest in Chinese built airport in
Hambantota.
CONCLUSION:
India’s “Act East Policy” has strengthened bilateral and
multilateral partnerships with nations in trade & investment, political,
strategic and cultural dimensions including establishment of institutional
mechanisms for dialogue and cooperation. Many partnerships have been upgraded
to comprehensive strategic and economic partnerships. On strategic issues, we have increasing convergence on security interests with key
partners both in bilateral and multilateral format. Closer cooperation in
combating maritime terrorism, arms, human trafficking, anti-piracy, peace and
stability in the Indo Pacific region and promotion of maritime security based
on International laws are being pursued successfully. India’s determined
efforts to reach out to ASEAN and other countries in East Asia has provided an
impetus to the several initiatives launched by the government like 'Make in
India', 'Skill India', 'Digital India', connectivity projects for rapid
economic development of the country and regional integration.
PM Modi’s leadership and actions in promoting free,
open, stable, inclusive Indo Pacific where
all nations abide by international norms and law has resulted in Geostrategic
convergence of “Act East Policy” of India and Indo-Pacific Strategies .
PM Narendra Modi has indeed succeeded in his “Act East Policy” as a major foreign policy
initiative.
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