Ever since his
Justice and Development Party (AKP) became Turkey’s dominant political force in
2002, for Erdogan, elevating the public role of Islam has been more than a
slogan. Erdogan sees himself as a global Islamic leader. Since he came to
power, Erdogan, in a building spree, has reportedly built 17,000 mosques (one
fifth of Turkey’s total). The largest is located in Camlica, the Asian shore of
Istanbul. Erdogan is ceaselessly active in diplomatizing his religion. The
biggest mosque in Balkans is located in Albania. The largest in West Africa in
Ghana, the largest in Central Asia in Kyrgystan, the largest mosque in Europe
at Strasbourg. He is planning to open
Turkish schools in France.
Erdogan has
empowered Turkey’s Directorate of Religious Affairs (Diyanet whose budget is the
size of twelve other ministries combined. This is the religious network with
which Erdogan spreads his influence in European affairs. In Germany, Turkey
controls 900 mosques out of a total of 2400. The Islamic centres not only serve
members of Turkish diaspora, but also stop them from assimilating into German
society. Erdogan called assimilation of migrants in Europe “ a crime against
humanity” and wants them to remain part of Turkey and Ummah, the global Muslim
community. Through four million Turkish Muslims in Germany and vast communities
in the Netherlands, France, Austria and beyond, Erdogan does indeed have
enormous influence in Europe. Mosques, migrants and military are now Erdogans
new weapons in his threat against the West.
Turkey now is the
17th largest economy in the world, it has an army and military
capability that is probably the best in Europe. Erdogan has placed Turkey’s
military – once a bastion of Turkish nationalism and secularism- under his
political authority. Erdogan is the head of NATO’s second largest army; and
conducts espionage activities across Europe through a network of mosques,
associations and cultural centres. By keeping migrants in Turkish refugee
camps, he controls immigration to Europe.
While Europe is pacifist and refuses to invest in its own security and
support NATO’s budget, Turkey is belligerent.
Hagia Sophia Reconversion:
On 10 July,
President Erdogan issued a decree reconverting the Hagia Sophia Museum to a
mosque, thus realizing a long cherished dream of conservative currents in
Turkish Society. Originally built as a cathedral by the Romans, the Hagia
Sophia functioned as Istanbul’s main mosque throughout the Ottoman era. Its
reconversion into a museum in 1934 was
one of a series of moves intended to distance Kemal Ataturk’s new
secular republic from the Islamic heritage of the defunct Ottoman Empire.
Reconversion is considered a significant achievement for the conservative side
and settling of scores with the early secular republic. Erdogan has gained
politically by treating this issue as an identity battle between conservatives
and secularists. Hagia Sophia controversy is a tactical move as an attempt by Erdogan
to divert attention from economic problems, unemployment (24.6%) and reverse
its declining support.
Turkey’s
aggressive foreign policy:
Turkish President
Recep Erdogan has made unprecedented moves which possess threat to regional and
global stability by destabilizing 1) Eastern Mediterranean and North Africa 2) South
Caucasus 3) Yemen 4) India and Saudi Arabia
1)
Eastern Mediterranean and North Africa:
After Turkey’s
exclusion from Israel-Cyprus-Greece undersea gas pipeline project, Erdogan
turned to oil rich Libya to secure his own source of cheap foreign energy for
Turkey. Turkey and Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA) signed a
maritime agreement in November 2019 to establish an Exclusive Economic Zone to
legitimize Turkey’s claims to offshore gas and oil in the Eastern
Mediterranean. The deal creates a sea corridor between the two nations, which
cuts through a zone claimed by Greece and Egypt, who are collaborating on gas
drilling and transportation in the area, and reigniting an ongoing territorial
dispute between Turkey and a conglomerate of Eastern Mediterranean countries.
Turkey in recent
months along with GNA, reversed a 14 month assault on Tripoli by LNA General
Khalifa Haftar, backed by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Russia and United Arab Emirates.
Turkey and Qatar back GNA. While Erdogan supports the GNA for ideological and
geopolitical reasons, there is also an economic rationale, as Turkey is keen to
assert its gas exploration rights in the Eastern Mediterranean and also offers
Erdogan a chance to flex his neo-Ottomanist ideology.
Turkeys efforts
can push war torn Libya into second wave of migration into Europe and that
would trigger adverse geo-political and geo-economic tensions across European
Union and Middle East. More than 48,000 refugees and 6,35,000 migrants have been
packed into overcrowded detention centres across Libya. Another
1.3 million Libyans are in dire need of humanitarian assistance.
Another
threat posed by Erdogan’s efforts is to form Turkish proxy state in Libya and
legitimize and expand the political cachet of Muslim Brotherhood, one of the
largest political organizations in the GNA led Libya. By gifting Muslim Brotherhood
a seat of power in Libya, Erdogan will further aggravate region-wide sectarian
tensions, exacerbating already fragile socio-political situation in Iraq, Syria
and Egypt.
Erdogan
is hoping to drag larger entities into conflict by its actions in Libya. Turkey
has become NATO’s Achilles heel, threatening to either destroy the world’s
strongest military alliance or to draw it into a series of conflicts with no
end in sight. Turkey’s pursuit of hegemony in North Africa is driving Libya
deeper into conflict, and could trigger a cascade of adverse consequences
across EU and Middle East. Erdogan is driving a wedge between Europe and the
Middle East.
In a
recent development, Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis warned Turkey by deploying
naval vessels and air force against continuing its seismic surveying for
offshore resources in contested areas of the Eastern Mediterranean. US
President Donald Trump and Turkish PM Recep Erdogan in a phone call discussed
steps to establish demilitarized zone and possible ways to achieve the
withdrawal of all foreign forces and mercenaries from Libya.
2) South
Caucasus:
South
Caucasus is the region below the Greater Caucasus mountains that includes Georgia,
Azerbaijan and Armenia, contested territories of Nagorna – Karabakh, the
uncontested but detached region of Nakhichevan. This is Russia’s backyard.
Azerbaijan
and Armenia are embroiled in a dispute over the Nagorna-Karabakh region, which
broke away from Azerbaijan in 1991 with the dissolution of Soviet Union.
Clashes broke out between the two countries militaries at the border near
Armenia’s Tavush and Azerbaian’s Tovuz provinces on 12 July. At least 16
people, including an army general, have been killed in the deadliest fighting
in years.
Turkish
National Defence Minister Hulusi Akar condemned Armenia for military action and
said in a press briefing:
“Armenia
will be buried under their own plot, drown in it, and will absolutely pay for
what they did”.
“Azerbaijan
and Turkey are two countries, one nation, who stand together in language,
religion, history, joy, sorrow and pride. This is an attempt that is bigger
than what Armenians can handle. They will pay for it”.
Turkey
is a close political ally of Azerbaijan, with which it shares cultural ties and
provides arms to, and Russia supports Armenia, maintain a complex relationship;
they back opposite sides of two long running conflicts in Syria and Libya,
while preserving economic ties and working with Iran to secure peace in Syria.
The
Russia Turkish rivalry and competition for influence is evident in regions sandwiched
between the two countries – Black Sea and South Caucasus. Russia’s 2014
annexation of Crimea has enabled it to expand its naval capability, power
projection across Black Sea and shift strategic balance in its favour.
In South Caucasus, Russian and Turkish interest collide. Russia and Turkey back opposing sides of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorna-Karabakh. Russia has a defence pact with Armenia (though in practice arms both sides) while Turkey has a strategic partnership and mutual support agreement with Azerbaijan. Any escalation over Nagorna -Karabakh will carry some risk of sucking in two regional heavyweights. Their competition adds to the regions’s militarization. Russia’s expanded military footprint in Syria, Armenia, Georgia’s breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and Crimean peninsula fuels Turkish fears of encirclement.
3) Yemen:
Turkey’s
growing presence in Yemen, especially in the restive southern region (coastal
areas: Shabwa, Socotra and Al Mukha), is fuelling concerns across the region
over security in the Gulf of Aden and Bab al-Mandeb. These concerns are further
heightened by reports indicating that Turkey’s agenda in Yemen is being
financed and supported by Qatar via Yemini political and tribal figures
affiliated with Muslim Brotherhood. Turkey has interests in abetting the Muslim
Brotherhood and giving it more power in Yemen. They are thought to be aiming to
blackmail the Arab-led coalition by creating a Turkish threat in the country
and forming a new coalition that includes both Qatar and Oman.
Turkey’s
efforts to increase their presence near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, through which
Gulf Oil is transported before reaching the Suez Canal, will threaten the
security of Gulf Arab states. Turkey’s efforts to increase its presence near
Bab el Mandeb strait are part of a larger campaign to shore up influence in the
southern entrance of the Red Sea. With a military base in Djibouti and repeated
efforts to gain a foothold in Somalia and the Sudanese Red Sea island of
Suakin, Turkey is working hard to become a force in the Red Sea.
4) India
and Saudi Arabia:
India’s
bilateral relations with Turkey nosedived to such an extent that PM Narendra
Modi had to call off his visit to Turkey in October 2019 due to President
Erdogan’s statement and stand on Kashmir in United Nations General Assembly
(UNGA) and defence cooperation with Pakistan.
President
Erdogan statement at UNGA, September 2019:
“Stability
and Prosperity of South Asia cannot be separated from the Kashmir issue”
“One
of the problems to which the international community still doesnot devote
enough attention is the Kashmir conflict, which awaits a solution for 72
years”.
“In
order for the Kashmiri people to look at a safe future together with their
Pakistani and Indian neighbours, it is imperative to solve the problem through dialogue
and on the basis of justice and equity, and not through collision”.
Turkey is building four anti-submarine corvettes
and 30 attack helicopters for Pakistan under total, 2.5 billion deal, which is
a matter of concern and national security threat to India. Turkey expects India
to back its nuclear ambitions and crack down on institutes of Fateullah Gullen,
his rival, who staged the 2016 failed coup to topple Erdogan. Besides, Erdogan
wanted a quid pro quo, India should not raise Northern Cyprus in return for
Turkey not raising Kashmir on International forums. After India deepened its
relations with Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, Pakistan latched on to
Turkey. Turkey has become a second home for Pakistan ISI activities.
In February 2020, while addressing joint session of
Pakistan’s Parliament, Erdogan raked up article 370 despite India’s objection
and announced that Turkey will back Pakistan to come out of the Grey List of
the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an anti-terror financing watchdog. Erdogan
said Turkey supports Pakistan’s stand on Kashmir issue and said:
“Our Kashmiri brothers and sisters have
suffered from inconveniences for decades and these sufferings have become
graver due to unilateral steps taken in recent times, apparently referring to
India revoking the special status of Jammu and Kashmir in August last year.”
“Today, the issue of Kashmir is as close
to us as it is to you (Pakistanis)”.
“Such a solution (on the basis of
justice and fairness) will serve the interests of all parties concerned. Turkey
will continue to stand by justice, peace and dialogue in the resolution of the
Kashmir issue”.
Turkey is emerging as a hub for anti-India
activities, next to Pakistan and funds radical Islamist organisation in Kerala
and Kashmir and sponsors all expense trips to Turkey to freshly recruited
radicals to reinforce their learnings. Turkey is attempting to influence South
Asian Muslims, especially in India, and challenge Saudi Arabia’s dominance in
the Islamic world at a global level by drawing a wedge in Organisation of
Islamic Co-operation (OIC, 57 members). It plans to offer a conservative Turkey
with Ottoman traditions to the Islamic nations to follow and project to be the
global protector of Islamic nations.
