TURKEY'S REGIONAL POWER AMBITIONS

Ever since his Justice and Development Party (AKP) became Turkey’s dominant political force in 2002, for Erdogan, elevating the public role of Islam has been more than a slogan. Erdogan sees himself as a global Islamic leader. Since he came to power, Erdogan, in a building spree, has reportedly built 17,000 mosques (one fifth of Turkey’s total). The largest is located in Camlica, the Asian shore of Istanbul. Erdogan is ceaselessly active in diplomatizing his religion. The biggest mosque in Balkans is located in Albania. The largest in West Africa in Ghana, the largest in Central Asia in Kyrgystan, the largest mosque in Europe at  Strasbourg. He is planning to open Turkish schools in France.

Erdogan has empowered Turkey’s Directorate of Religious Affairs (Diyanet whose budget is the size of twelve other ministries combined. This is the religious network with which Erdogan spreads his influence in European affairs. In Germany, Turkey controls 900 mosques out of a total of 2400. The Islamic centres not only serve members of Turkish diaspora, but also stop them from assimilating into German society. Erdogan called assimilation of migrants in Europe “ a crime against humanity” and wants them to remain part of Turkey and Ummah, the global Muslim community. Through four million Turkish Muslims in Germany and vast communities in the Netherlands, France, Austria and beyond, Erdogan does indeed have enormous influence in Europe. Mosques, migrants and military are now Erdogans new weapons in his threat against the West.

Turkey now is the 17^th largest economy in the world, it has an army and military capability that is probably the best in Europe. Erdogan has placed Turkey’s military – once a bastion of Turkish nationalism and secularism- under his political authority. Erdogan is the head of NATO’s second largest army; and conducts espionage activities across Europe through a network of mosques, associations and cultural centres. By keeping migrants in Turkish refugee camps, he controls immigration to Europe.  While Europe is pacifist and refuses to invest in its own security and support NATO’s budget, Turkey is belligerent.

Hagia Sophia  Reconversion:

On 10 July, President Erdogan issued a decree reconverting the Hagia Sophia Museum to a mosque, thus realizing a long cherished dream of conservative currents in Turkish Society. Originally built as a cathedral by the Romans, the Hagia Sophia functioned as Istanbul’s main mosque throughout the Ottoman era. Its reconversion into a museum in 1934 was  one of a series of moves intended to distance Kemal Ataturk’s new secular republic from the Islamic heritage of the defunct Ottoman Empire. Reconversion is considered a significant achievement for the conservative side and settling of scores with the early secular republic. Erdogan has gained politically by treating this issue as an identity battle between conservatives and secularists. Hagia Sophia controversy is a tactical move as an attempt by Erdogan to divert attention from economic problems, unemployment (24.6%) and reverse its declining support.

Turkey’s aggressive foreign policy:

Turkish President Recep Erdogan has made unprecedented moves which possess threat to regional and global stability by destabilizing 1) Eastern Mediterranean and North Africa 2) South Caucasus 3) Yemen 4) India and Saudi Arabia

1)      Eastern Mediterranean and North Africa:

After Turkey’s exclusion from Israel-Cyprus-Greece undersea gas pipeline project, Erdogan turned to oil rich Libya to secure his own source of cheap foreign energy for Turkey. Turkey and Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA) signed a maritime agreement in November 2019 to establish an Exclusive Economic Zone to legitimize Turkey’s claims to offshore gas and oil in the Eastern Mediterranean. The deal creates a sea corridor between the two nations, which cuts through a zone claimed by Greece and Egypt, who are collaborating on gas drilling and transportation in the area, and reigniting an ongoing territorial dispute between Turkey and a conglomerate of Eastern Mediterranean countries.

Turkey in recent months along with GNA, reversed a 14 month assault on Tripoli by LNA General Khalifa Haftar, backed by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Russia and United Arab Emirates. Turkey and Qatar back GNA. While Erdogan supports the GNA for ideological and geopolitical reasons, there is also an economic rationale, as Turkey is keen to assert its gas exploration rights in the Eastern Mediterranean and also offers Erdogan a chance to flex his neo-Ottomanist ideology.

Turkeys efforts can push war torn Libya into second wave of migration into Europe and that would trigger adverse geo-political and geo-economic tensions across European Union and Middle East. More than 48,000 refugees and 6,35,000 migrants have been packed into overcrowded detention centres across Libya. Another 1.3 million Libyans are in dire need of humanitarian assistance.

Another threat posed by Erdogan’s efforts is to form Turkish proxy state in Libya and legitimize and expand the political cachet of Muslim Brotherhood, one of the largest political organizations in the GNA led Libya. By gifting Muslim Brotherhood a seat of power in Libya, Erdogan will further aggravate region-wide sectarian tensions, exacerbating already fragile socio-political situation in Iraq, Syria and Egypt.

Erdogan is hoping to drag larger entities into conflict by its actions in Libya. Turkey has become NATO’s Achilles heel, threatening to either destroy the world’s strongest military alliance or to draw it into a series of conflicts with no end in sight. Turkey’s pursuit of hegemony in North Africa is driving Libya deeper into conflict, and could trigger a cascade of adverse consequences across EU and Middle East. Erdogan is driving a wedge between Europe and the Middle East.

In a recent development, Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis warned Turkey by deploying naval vessels and air force against continuing its seismic surveying for offshore resources in contested areas of the Eastern Mediterranean. US President Donald Trump and Turkish PM Recep Erdogan in a phone call discussed steps to establish demilitarized zone and possible ways to achieve the withdrawal of all foreign forces and mercenaries from Libya.

2)      South Caucasus:

South Caucasus is the region below the Greater Caucasus mountains that includes Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia, contested territories of Nagorna – Karabakh, the uncontested but detached region of Nakhichevan. This is Russia’s backyard.

Azerbaijan and Armenia are embroiled in a dispute over the Nagorna-Karabakh region, which broke away from Azerbaijan in 1991 with the dissolution of Soviet Union. Clashes broke out between the two countries militaries at the border near Armenia’s Tavush and Azerbaian’s Tovuz provinces on 12 July. At least 16 people, including an army general, have been killed in the deadliest fighting in years.

Turkish National Defence Minister Hulusi Akar condemned Armenia for military action and said in a press briefing:

“Armenia will be buried under their own plot, drown in it, and will absolutely pay for what they did”.

“Azerbaijan and Turkey are two countries, one nation, who stand together in language, religion, history, joy, sorrow and pride. This is an attempt that is bigger than what Armenians can handle. They will pay for it”.

Turkey is a close political ally of Azerbaijan, with which it shares cultural ties and provides arms to, and Russia supports Armenia, maintain a complex relationship; they back opposite sides of two long running conflicts in Syria and Libya, while preserving economic ties and working with Iran to secure peace in Syria.

The Russia Turkish rivalry and competition for influence is evident in regions sandwiched between the two countries – Black Sea and South Caucasus. Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea has enabled it to expand its naval capability, power projection across Black Sea and shift strategic balance in its favour.

In South Caucasus, Russian and Turkish interest collide. Russia and Turkey back opposing sides of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorna-Karabakh. Russia has a defence pact with Armenia (though in practice arms both sides) while Turkey has a strategic partnership and mutual support agreement with Azerbaijan. Any escalation over Nagorna -Karabakh will carry some risk of sucking in two regional heavyweights. Their competition adds to the regions’s militarization. Russia’s expanded military footprint in Syria, Armenia, Georgia’s breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and Crimean peninsula fuels Turkish fears of encirclement.

3)      Yemen:

Turkey’s growing presence in Yemen, especially in the restive southern region (coastal areas: Shabwa, Socotra and Al Mukha), is fuelling concerns across the region over security in the Gulf of Aden and Bab al-Mandeb. These concerns are further heightened by reports indicating that Turkey’s agenda in Yemen is being financed and supported by Qatar via Yemini political and tribal figures affiliated with Muslim Brotherhood. Turkey has interests in abetting the Muslim Brotherhood and giving it more power in Yemen. They are thought to be aiming to blackmail the Arab-led coalition by creating a Turkish threat in the country and forming a new coalition that includes both Qatar and Oman.

Turkey’s efforts to increase their presence near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, through which Gulf Oil is transported before reaching the Suez Canal, will threaten the security of Gulf Arab states. Turkey’s efforts to increase its presence near Bab el Mandeb strait are part of a larger campaign to shore up influence in the southern entrance of the Red Sea. With a military base in Djibouti and repeated efforts to gain a foothold in Somalia and the Sudanese Red Sea island of Suakin, Turkey is working hard to become a force in the Red Sea.

4)      India and Saudi Arabia:

India’s bilateral relations with Turkey nosedived to such an extent that PM Narendra Modi had to call off his visit to Turkey in October 2019 due to President Erdogan’s statement and stand on Kashmir in United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) and defence cooperation with Pakistan.

President Erdogan statement at UNGA, September 2019:

“Stability and Prosperity of South Asia cannot be separated from the Kashmir issue”

“One of the problems to which the international community still doesnot devote enough attention is the Kashmir conflict, which awaits a solution for 72 years”.

“In order for the Kashmiri people to look at a safe future together with their Pakistani and Indian neighbours, it is imperative to solve the problem through dialogue and on the basis of justice and equity, and not through collision”.

Turkey is building four anti-submarine corvettes and 30 attack helicopters for Pakistan under total, 2.5 billion deal, which is a matter of concern and national security threat to India. Turkey expects India to back its nuclear ambitions and crack down on institutes of Fateullah Gullen, his rival, who staged the 2016 failed coup to topple Erdogan. Besides, Erdogan wanted a quid pro quo, India should not raise Northern Cyprus in return for Turkey not raising Kashmir on International forums. After India deepened its relations with Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, Pakistan latched on to Turkey. Turkey has become a second home for Pakistan ISI activities.

In February 2020, while addressing joint session of Pakistan’s Parliament, Erdogan raked up article 370 despite India’s objection and announced that Turkey will back Pakistan to come out of the Grey List of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an anti-terror financing watchdog. Erdogan said Turkey supports Pakistan’s stand on Kashmir issue and said:

“Our Kashmiri brothers and sisters have suffered from inconveniences for decades and these sufferings have become graver due to unilateral steps taken in recent times, apparently referring to India revoking the special status of Jammu and Kashmir in August last year.”

“Today, the issue of Kashmir is as close to us as it is to you (Pakistanis)”.

“Such a solution (on the basis of justice and fairness) will serve the interests of all parties concerned. Turkey will continue to stand by justice, peace and dialogue in the resolution of the Kashmir issue”.

Turkey is emerging as a hub for anti-India activities, next to Pakistan and funds radical Islamist organisation in Kerala and Kashmir and sponsors all expense trips to Turkey to freshly recruited radicals to reinforce their learnings. Turkey is attempting to influence South Asian Muslims, especially in India, and challenge Saudi Arabia’s dominance in the Islamic world at a global level by drawing a wedge in Organisation of Islamic Co-operation (OIC, 57 members). It plans to offer a conservative Turkey with Ottoman traditions to the Islamic nations to follow and project to be the global protector of Islamic nations.

BRAND CHINA IN CONUNDRUM: HAS INDIA’S MOMENT OF RENAISSANCE ARRIVED?

Background:

Two things define supply chains: Availability and Price. World War II was based on destroying the enemies supply chain: The US crippled Germany’s oil and ball bearings, Germany wanted to break the supply chain from US to UK using submarines, US wanted to cripple Japan’s supply chain to southeast Asia. The country that possessed most of the elements or components to construct the means of war and finished products were not vulnerable to enemy attack until shipped or in combat. US thus had an advantage in World War II.

The Post World War II idea was that free trade, diffused supply chains, securing supply chains, intertwined economies would increase mutual dependence and avert war and that worked to a great extent as there was no world war since 1945. But for this to sustain, supply chain depended on trust that neither side would disrupt the supply chain to seek control over the other. The two largest economies US and China had tensions which led to friction short of war as supply chain was business dependent and a political matter. The two countries were not interested in free trade but advantageous trade. The current global system has massive physical and political complexity and in an event like Covid 19, each one may act differently and undermine the interest of other nations. The supply chains can shift but not quickly.

China’s Image Dented Globally

Apart from trade war and supply chain tensions between US and China, the two are engaged in fierce competing barrages about the origin of outbreak of coronavirus. An increasingly prominent narrative in the US is that not only did the pandemic originate in China, but that China withheld key information for weeks that could have enabled other countries to adopt measures impeding the spread of the deadly virus. China has embarked on a massive campaign/ information war to change the global narrative and perception by controlling public opinion to revive its global image amid the pandemic. China is using “Generosity Politics and Diplomacy” as a tool to change public opinion by sending doctors, PPE’s, Face masks, ventilators, testing kits and tons of other medical equipment to Italy and other countries affected by pandemic. This diplomacy failed as lot of testing kits and other supplies were returned to china as they lacked “Quality”. In China, the pandemic and its disastrous handling in the initial phase of disease control, threatens social and political stability. China’s image of regime’s efficiency and its image has been severely dented in the eyes of the Chinese population and even more seriously, in the eyes of the world. This is emergency for the Chinese regime.

Diplomatic Pressure mounts on China

Diplomatic pressure is mounting on China over its management of Pandemic and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

1.   US President Donald Trump signed into law the Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative Act of 2019 on 26 March’20 under which the US government is legitimately seeking to establish a diplomatic presence in Taiwan and help Taiwan  gain participation in International Organisations as well as level up its economic ties with Taiwan.  

2.   At a White House press conference, President Donald Trump criticized china on several fronts and said China should face consequences if it was “knowingly responsible” for the coronavirus pandemic.

3.   German Chancellor Angela Merkel urged China to be as transparent as possible about coronavirus outbreak. She urged for more information about the early days of the outbreak, which originated in Wuhan.

4.   European Commissions Chief Ursula von der Leyen has backed the calls from Australia and the US for an independent investigation into the origin of COVID-19 pandemic and asked China to join the investigation.

5.   Australia is planning to raise the issue of the independent probe over COVID-19 at the World Health Organisation (WHO) meet on 17 May’20 and support Taiwan’s entry into WHO.

6.   Japan has earmarked $ 2.2 billion to assist domestic companies to shift production from China back home or diversify production bases into South East Asia.

7.   White House National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow said the US should “pay the moving costs” of every American Company that wants out of China.

8.   If US and Japan, the worlds biggest and third biggest economies respectively, move away from China, it will have a huge impact on China’s economy and other countries may follow.

9.   US state of Missouri has filed a law suit against China’s Communist Party (CCP) and other Chinese officials and institutions alleging that during critical weeks of the initial outbreak, the Chinese authorities deceived the public, suppressed crucial information, arrested whistle blowers, denied human to human transmission, destroyed critical medical research, exposed millions to the virus and hoarded Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) causing a global pandemic. China dismissed the lawsuit citing absurdity and violation of sovereignty.

10.  Germany’s largest tabloid newspaper, Bild, sent an itemized bill to China to pay Euro 149 billion.

11.  Alarmed by People’s Bank of China raising its stake from 0.8% to 1.01 % in HDFC Bank, India changed its FDI policy from automatic approval to government approval route for any country which shares land boundary with India.

12.  The European Commission (EC) has singled out the issue of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) screening as part of the EU’s overall response to COVID-19 and issued guidance to Member States on 25 March 2020 to protect critical European assets and Technology.

Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on supply chains:

The COVID-19 pandemic feels like a war. People are dying. The medical professionals are on the front lines. Those in police, public distribution system, essential services, public utility services are working overtime to support the effort. People are fighting the pandemic confined in their homes. The pandemic has hit major industries: automobiles, pharmaceuticals, medical equipment and supplies, electronics, hospitality, tourism, consumer goods in an unprecedented scale and speed. This has caused closures of businesses, manufacturing and their supply networks.

As per World Bank, Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM database), Industrial production in China  has fallen by 13.5% in January and February combined, compared with the previous year . This fall is due to various factors including shortage of parts, shortage of labour workers trapped due to shut down, slow recovery of transportation network, emergency regulations and restriction on movement.  Since China is world production hub and at the heart of Global Value Chains (GVC’s), this initial decline in production and trade seen in China will have a strong impact on countries further up and down the supply chain since most of the countries have imposed restrictions on movement to combat the spread of virus.

Global manufacturing Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEM’s) are scrambling to find alternative solutions, including quickly shifting orders to secondary or tertiary suppliers to make up the missed delivery from primary suppliers and moving core business priorities back to their own factories. Since the pandemic epicentre has shifted toward US and Europe, the knock-on effects have begun to multiply. We are in a completely different new era now and globalization as we have known it in the past is over. It is still too early to quantify fully the effects of the supply chain disruptions due to pandemic but there are severe implications for international production networks.

China is fishing in Troubled waters:

As the world combats the COVID-19 pandemic, which has reached over 200 countries, infected 3.4 million people and killed about 2,39,000 people, China continues to intimidate and harass in South China Sea (SCS). China is exploiting ASEAN countries preoccupation with the pandemic in the hope that its actions will provoke little or no reaction, further strengthening its hold in the SCS. China will continue to harass new oil and gas exploration and all fishing activities by its neighbours until it becomes too risky and expensive for Southeast Asian civilians and governments to do anything without china’s approval. Chinese companies are also on a shopping spree to buy strategic stakes or majority control in US and European companies as asset prices fall due to pandemic.

1.   China announced the establishment of “Xisha District” and “Nansha District” in so called “Sansha City” to manage Vietnam’s Paracel and Spratley islands, Macclesfield Bank and surrounding waters.

2.   A Chinese vessel also sank a Vietnamese fishing vessel with eight men on it in the Woody Island, part of Paracel

3.   Chinese survey vessel Haiyang Dizhi 8 was spotted around 158 km off Vietnam’s coast, inside its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). It then followed exploration vessel West Capella belonging to Malaysian state oil company Petronas after entering Malaysia’s EEZ.

4.   There is a report, confirmed by US Assistant Attorney General for National Security John Demers that US hospitals and research labs are being targeted by Chinese cyber cell as china seeks to obtain knowledge of progress in developing a vaccine for COVID-19.

5.   China Overseas Shipping Company, COSCO owns 90% of the only terminal operator in Belgium. COSCO has 51% stake in and managerial control of port terminals in Valencia and Bilbao in Spain. They also have minority stakes in other terminals in Antwerp, Las Palmas and Rotterdam according to December 2019 study by Netherland think tank.

6.  China has threatened to stop importing wine and beef from Australia if the Morrison government continues to push for an inquiry into the origin of the global coronavirus outbreak.

7.   FM Mihaly Varga announced that Hungary and China have signed a loan agreement to finance the construction of railway link between Budapest and Belgrade.

INDIA TO EMERGE AS THE NEW NERVE CENTRE OF SUPPLY CHAIN POST COVID-19

INDIA HAS THE RIGHT COMBINATION OF FACTORS:

1.  Despite being the world’s second most populous country, with more than 1.3 billion people,the extent of impact of Covid-19 is relatively contained if one looks at published numbers in western countries.

2.   Recent criticism on china and trust deficit could result in marked shift in economic flows.

3.  Past 5 years have seen structural reforms such as Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, GST,relieving banking system of corporate loans.

4.  India is a growing economy, compared to contracting ones in most other countries. IMF predicts India’s growth rate to bounce back to 7.4% in 2021.

5. India can escape recession due to its fewer linkages with global supply chains and dependence on domestic consumption as the primary driver of GDP growth. This should help India retain its position as one of the most attractive FDI destinations in the world.

6.  Indian Meteorological Department has said the monsoon rains this year will be normal. This is excellent news for the Indian economy as almost 60% of the Indian population depends on monsoon for sustenance. Good monsoon is a critical driver of the Indian economy as rural demand accounts for about 45% of the total consumption demand of the Indian economy.

7.   The COVID-19 pandemic is leading to a widespread rejigging of global supply chains. The Shinzo Abe government in Japan has allocated $ 2.2 billion from its $ 1 trillion stimulus package to finance relocation of Japanese factories out of China.

8.  Before COVID-19 pandemic, at the height of trade war with China, President Donald Trump had ordered US companies to move their factories out of China. US giants like Apple, toymaker Hasbro had announced plans to reduce dependence on china supply chain. Apple has already announced that it will invest $ 1 billion along with its partner Foxconn in India.

9.   India’s large domestic market makes it an attractive FDI location as companies can build economies of scale in the local market and then leverage this to export their products around the world.

10.  Manufacturing plants will shift closer to where demand is. The biggest strength of Indian economy is that two-third of the economy is driven by domestic demand. India is one single market of 1.3 billion customers.

11.  Corporate tax lowered for new contract manufacturing companies @ 15% (plus surcharge and cess) which is a good incentive for companies to shift their manufacturing base in India.

12. Massive improvement in the country’s ranking on the World Banks’s Ease of Doing Business Index.

With the right combination of factors in place, Government of Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh are planning to offer incentives to attract manufacturers who are looking to shift base from China. On 30 April PM Modi organized a meeting to deliberate potential reforms to ensure robust and self-reliant defence Industry, reduce dependence on imports and take forward “Make in India” to build indigenous capabilities and laid emphasis on positioning India among the top countries of the world in Defence and Aerospace sector. INDIA’S MOMENT OF RENAISSANCE, INDEED, HAS ARRIVED.

Ayushman Bharat: India’s Flagship Programme

Nearly 3000 years ago, one of ancient India’s great sages Yajnavalkya composed the Shanti Sukta: “Sarve Bhavantu Sukhinah; Sarve Santu Niramayah” (May all be happy, may everyone be free of diseases). What is striking is not the prescience and universality of this invocation, but also the insight that happiness and health in a populace are inextricably interwined.

Today, as we reflect upon the journey of India as an independent nation over the last seven decades, there can be no denying the fact that a lot of potential in this sector remains unharnessed and ill-health is one of the leading causes of Indians falling into poverty. The government spends barely 1% of the GDP on health even as we are confronted with a two front war  1) rising burden of non-communicable diseases 2) control of communicable diseases and reproductive and child health issues. As a result, the citizens Out-of-Pocket (OOP) expenditure on health constitutes 62% of the total expenditure on health, placing India at 182^nd position out of 191 countries on this indicator. In fact, over 55% of this expenditure is on Outpatient care, of which drugs constitute the biggest component. 71^st round of National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO) found 85.9% of rural households and 82% of urban households have no access to healthcare insurance/assurance. Catastrophic healthcare related expenditure pushes families into debt, with more than 24% households in rural India and 18% population in Urban area have met their healthcare expenses through some sort of borrowings. This structure of health financing places a disproportionate burden on the poor families and catastrophic health expenses have contributed to an increase in poverty levels in rural and urban areas by 3.6% and 2.9% respectively.

Mindful of this reality and to plug the existing gaps in our health system, the government announced a new flagship scheme “Ayushman Bharat” in the Union Budget 2018-19.

Ayushman Bharat Programme:

On 1st February’18, the NDA Government announced two major initiatives in health sector as a part of Ayushman Bharat programme. The two initiatives: 1) Health and Wellness Centre (HWC)  2) National Health Protection Mission (NHPM).

On 23 September’18, India took a giant leap towards providing accessible and affordable healthcare to the common man with the launch of Ayushman Bharat – National Health Protection Mission (AB-NHPM) by Prime Minister Narendra Modi at Ranchi, Jharkhand.

AB-NHPM will target poor, deprived rural families and identified occupational category of urban workers families as per the latest Socio-Economic Caste Census (SECC) data covering both rural and urban population. The scheme is designed to be dynamic and aspirational and it would take into account any future changes in the exclusion/inclusion/deprivation/occupational criteria in the SECC data.

AB-NHPM is a paradigm shift from sectorial, segmented and fragmented approach of service delivery through various national and State schemes to a bigger, more comprehensive and better converged and need based service delivery of secondary and tertiary care. When fully implemented, AB-NHPM will become the world’s largest fully government financed health protection scheme. It is a visionary step towards advancing the agenda of Universal Health Coverage (UHC).

Benefits under Ayshman Bharat:

1. The AB-NHPM will provide a coverage up to Rs. 5 lakhs per family per year for secondary and tertiary care hospitalization through a network of Empanelled Health Care Providers (EHCP).
2. Over 10.74 crore vulnerable entitled families (approximately 50 crore beneficiaries) will be eligible for these benefits. There is no cap on family size and age as well as restriction on pre-existing conditions.
3. AB-NHPM will provide cashless and paperless access to services for the beneficiary at the point of service.
4. NHPM will help reduce catastrophic expenditure for hospitalization, which impoverishes people and will help mitigate the financial risk arising out of catastrophic health episodes.
5. Entitled families will be able to use the quality health services they need without facing financial hardships.

Salient Features of Ayshman Bharat:

1. Creation of 1,50,000 Health and Wellness Centres (HWCs) to bring healthcare closer to the homes of the people. These centres will provide Comprehensive Primary Health Care (CPHC) covering both maternal and child health services and non- communicable diseases, including free essential drugs and diagnostics. HWCs will play a critical role in creating awareness about NHPM.
2. The EHCP network will provide cashless and paperless access to services for the beneficiaries at both public and private hospitals. The services will include 1350 procedures covering pre and post hospitalization, diagnostics, medicines etc.
3. The beneficiaries will be able to move across borders and access services across the country through the provider network seamlessly.
4. NHPM scheme is principle based rather than rule based, allowing States enough flexibility in terms of packages, procedures, entitlements as well as other guidelines while ensuring that key benefits of portability and fraud detection are ensured at a national level.
5. States can implement the scheme through an insurance company or directly through the Trust/Society/Implementation Support Agency or a mixed approach.
6. Thirty states and UTs have signed the MoU and have started working on implementation of the mission.
7. The scheme is creating a cadre of certified frontline health service professionals called Pradhan Mantri Aarogya Mitras (PMAMs) who will be primary point of facilitation for the beneficiaries to avail treatment at the hospital and thus, act as a support system to streamline health service delivery.
8. Training  programs for State, District and PMAMs have been conducted in 27 states. A total of 3936 personnel have been trained at State, District and PMAM levels.
9. So far 15,686 applications for hospital empanelment have been received.
10. Detailed guidelines have been prepared to address the issues around potential fraudulent activities that could be committed by any individual or organization.
11. Pilot launch is taking place in specific hospitals to test the Beneficiary Identification System (BIS) and Transaction Management System (TMS). National Health Agency (NHA) has tested the software in 80 districts across 10 states.
12. Robust systems are put in place in the IT platform to ensure privacy and security of the data.

The government’s active stewardship in leveraging the potential of the mixed health system is a very welcome development. It is heartening to note the political commitment at the highest levels to transform India’s health system into an affordable, accessible, inclusive and efficient system.

  

Namami Gange : India’s Flagship Programme under PM Modi

Overview of River Ganga

The river Ganga rises in the western Himalayas in the state of Uttarakhand and flows south and east through Gangetic plain of North India. After entering West Bengal, it divides into two rivers, the Hooghly and Padma river. The Hooghly or Adi Ganga, flows through several districts of West Bengal and into the Bay of Bengal near Sagar Island. The Padma river flows into and through Bangladesh and empties into the Bay of Bengal. The Ganga basin is the largest river basin in India in terms of catchment area (8,61,404 km² ) and covers 11 states: Uttarakhand, U.P, M.P, Rajasthan, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, West Bengal and Delhi. 46% of India’s population reside along the main stem of Ganga: Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal. Out of the total length of 2525 km Ganga, 450 km passes through Uttarakhand, 1000 km through Uttar Pradesh, 110 km through sharing length (UP-Bihar), 405 km through Bihar, 40 km through Jharkhand and 520 km through West Bengal.

Ganga is not only a holiest river to Hindus, it has some inherent qualities of cultural amalgamation, heritage notions and diversity. It gives vibrancy to many Ghats and Temples and hope to millions for a new phase of life every day. What ails Ganga today is the Urban and Industrial pollution due to discharge of sewage, industrial effluents, religious offerings wrapped in non-degradable plastics, human activities such as bathing, washing clothes, human waste and other pollutants, catchment degradation, bio-diversity loss, Deforestation, failure of pollution control mechanism, governance and mindset of water resources establishment and the people. Today, river Ganga is considered as the sixth most polluted river in the world.

"Namami Gange" Programme

A number of initiatives have been undertaken to clean the river but failed to deliver the desired results. After getting elected, Prime Minister Modi affirmed to work in cleaning the river and controlling pollution by announcing Namami Gange Programme in July 2014 budget.

Namami Gange Programme, is an Integrated Conservation Mission, approved as a “Flagship Programme by Government of India in May’15 with an outlay of Rs. 20,000 crore for a five year period. The programme has twin objectives of effective abatement of pollution, conservation and rejuvenation of National River Ganga.

The vision for Ganga Rejuvenation constitutes restoring the wholesomeness of the river defined in terms of ensuring “Aviral Dhara” (continuous flow), “Nirmal Dhara” (unpolluted flow), Geologic and ecological integrity.

Namami Gange will focus on pollution abatement interventions namely; Interception, diversion and treatment of wastewater flowing through open drains through bio-remediation/ appropriate in-situ treatment/use of innovative technologies/sewage treatment plants (STPs)/effluent treatment plant (ETPs); rehabilitation and augmentation of existing STPs and immediate short term measures for arresting pollution at exit points on river front to prevent inflow of sewage. The program is expected to deliver socio-economic benefits in terms of job creation, improved livelihoods and health benefits to the vast population on the river.

For effective implementation, the government is focusing on involving people living on the banks of the river to attain sustainable results. The program focuses on involving the states and grassroots level institutions such as urban local bodies and Panchayati Raj institutions in implementation. The program is implemented by National Mission for Clean Ganga (NMCG) and its state counterpart organizations i.e State Program Management Groups (SPMGs). A three-tier mechanism is used for project monitoring comprising of 1) High level task force chaired by Cabinet secretary assisted by NMCG at national level   2) State level committee chaired by chief secretary assisted by SPMG at state level  3) District level committee chaired by District Magistrate.

The main pillars of Namami Gange Programme:

1. Sewage treatment Infrastructure 
2. River Surface Cleaning
3.  Afforestation
4.  Industrial Effluent Monitoring
5.  River Front Development
6.  Bio-diversity
7.  Public Awareness
8.  Ganga Gram

Its implementation has been divided into:

1. Entry Level Activities: River surface cleaning, Rural Sanitation, Modernization, Renovation of Ghats and Crematoria (for immediate visible impact).
2. Medium Term Activities: Muncipal Sewage Management, Industrial Effluent Management (to be implemented within 5 years of time frame).
3. Long Term Activities: Adequate Waterflow (to be implemented within 10 years).

Efforts are being made to complete Short Term and Medium Term projects by 2020.

The project is being carried out aggressively under the supervision of the Minister for Ministry for Water Resources, River Development and Ganga Rejuvenation, Nitin Gadkari, who said during a press conference in New Delhi on 10^th May’18 that “70 to 80 percent of Ganga would be clean by March 2019”.

The key achievements under Namami Gange Programme:

1. In order to create Sewarage Treatment Capacity, 63 sewerage management projects are under implementation in the states of Uttarakhand, U.P, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal; 12 new sewerage management projects launched in these states.
2. 28 River Front Development projects and 33 Entry level projects for construction, modernization and renovation of 182 ghats and 118 crematoria has been initiated.
3. River Surface Cleaning for collection of floating solid waste from the surface of the Ghats and River and its disposal are afoot and pushed into service at 11 locations.
4. For Bio-Diversity Conservation, projects namely; Bio-Diversity conservation and Ganga Rejuvenation, Fish and Fishery Conservation, Ganges River Dolphin Conservation Education programme has been initiated. Bio-Diversity centers at Dehradun, Narora, Allahabad, Varanasi and Barrackpore has been developed for restoration of identified priority species.
5. Afforestation: Forestry interventions for Ganga through Wildlife Institute of India; Central Inland Fisheries Research Institute and Centre for Environment Education has been initiated. Forestry interventions for Ganga has been executed as per the Detailed Project Report prepared by Forest Research Institute, Dehradun for a period of 5 years (2016-2021) at a project cost of 2300 crores. Work has commenced in 7 districts of Uttarakhand for medicinal plants.
6. For public Awareness, a series of activities such as events, seminars and conferences, Information Education Communication (IEC) activities were organized to make a strong pitch for public outreach and community participation in the programme. Various activities through rallies, campaigns, exhibitions, competitions, plantation drives and development and distribution of resource materials were organized. “Gange Theme Song” was released widely and played on digital media to enhance the visibility of the programme. National Mission for Clean Ganga (NMCG) ensured presence at social media platforms like Facebook, Twitter, Youtube etc.
7. Real Time Effluent Monitoring Stations (EMS) has been installed in 572 out of 760 Grossly Polluting Industries (GPIs). Closure notice have been issued to 135 GPIs so far and others have been given deadlines for compliance to stipulated norms and for installations of online EMS.
8. Ministry of Drinking Water and Sanitation (MoDWS) identified 1674 Gram Panchayats situated on the bank of River Ganga in states ( Uttarakhand, U.P, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal). Rs 78 crores has been released to MoDWS for construction of toilets in 1674 Gram Panchayats of 5 Ganga Basin states. Out of the targeted 15,27,105 units, MoDWS has completed construction of 8,53,397 toilets. Consortium of 7 IITs has been engaged in the preparation of Ganga River Basin Plan and 65 villages have been adopted by 13 IITs to develop as model villages. United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has been engaged as the executing agency for rural sanitation programme and to develop Jharkhand as a model state at an estimated cost of  Rs. 127 crore.
9. Banks of River Ganga are set to get major facelift as several companies like Shipping Corporation of India, Indorama Corporation, IndusInd Bank, Yes Bank, Hinduja group, Arcelor Mittal, New Indian Express, Bajaj Electricals and few others have undertaken CSR projects for Ghat cleaning/crematoria construction and Development, River Surface Cleaning, Solid Waste Disposal, Afforestation, provision of amenities and similar work under Namami Gange.
10. NMCG has bought on board Survey of India, oldest scientific department, to facilitate Ganga Rejuvenation by using Geographic Information System (GIS) technology. The project uses Digital Elevation Model (DEM) technology to collect accurate data for river basin management planning and enables identification of entire topography of an area making it easy for policy makers to analyse the data and support decision making process. The data collected and subsequent actions taken by the government can be shared with the local public through geo-portals and mobile apps. The technology will also enable people to send their feedback upto national level thereby providing an interactive and transparent platform.
11. On Rural Sanitation front, all 4465 villages on the bank of river Ganga have been made Open Defecation Free (ODF) and 10,83,688 individual household toilets have been constructed.
12. Five crore plants are being planted along Ganga Basin as part of afforestation drive at a cost of Rs. 112 crores for preventing soil erosion and groundwater recharge.
13. A composite Ecological Task Force with HQ at Allahabad and three companies of 100 men each being raised with Territorial Army. They would take up plantation, public awareness, patrolling of river fronts and monitor river pollution.
14. In an expedition which lasted over a month, a 40 member team led by Everester Bachendri Pal, the country’s first women who reached summit of Mount Everest in 1984, removed 55 tons of garbage from Ganga.

India Japan Relations: Expanding Special Strategic And Global Partnership

India Japan Relations

Prime Minister Modi, after coming to power, chose Japan as his first destination for a bilateral visit outside India’s immediate neighbourhood, reflecting importance of Japan in India’s foreign policy, economic development and her place at the heart of  India’s Act East Policy. India and Japan are Asia’s two largest and oldest democracies with ancient cultural links and enduring goodwill between their people. The two countries are joined together by convergent global interest, critical maritime inter-connection and growing international responsibilities. They share an abiding commitment to peace and stability, international rule of law and open global trade regime. Their economies have vast complementarities that create boundless opportunities for mutually beneficial economic partnership.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe  in a meeting in Tokyo in September’14, pledged to realize the full potential of India-Japan strategic and global partnership for continuing progress and prosperity for their people and for advancing peace, stability and prosperity in Asia and the world, marking a dawn of a new era in India-Japan relations.

Since their first meeting in September’14, the two Prime Ministers have intensified and invigorated multi-sectoral dialogues between their Foreign Ministers, Defence Ministers, National Security Advisors and Ministers dealing with finance, economy, trade, science & technology, infrastructure and connectivity and energy to build deeper mutual understanding and cooperation. Both leaders reaffirmed the importance of defence relations between them in their special strategic partnership by signing Memorandum of Cooperation and Exchanges in the field of Defence by regularization of bilateral maritime exercises, joint exercises between Coast Guards and Japan’s continued participation in India-US Malabar series of exercises. Japan’s new policy on transfer of defence equipment and technology has ushered a new era of co-operation by unlocking enormous potential for transfer and collaborative projects in defence equipment and technology between the two countries e.g US-2 amphibian aircraft. The two leaders have affirmed their shared commitment to maritime security, freedom of navigation and overflight, civil aviation safety, unimpeded lawful commerce and peaceful settlement of disputes in accordance with international law.

At a time of growing global turmoil, tensions, transitions and disruptions, the two leaders affirmed that a closer and stronger global partnership between the two countries is indispensible for a prosperous future of the two countries and peace, stability and prosperity in the world, in particular, in the inter-connected Asia, Pacific and Indian Ocean Regions. The two leaders have committed to build strong partnership to promote economic and social development, capacity building and infrastructure development in other countries and region.

The India Japan relationship is rapidly gathering momentum. A foundational pillar of this relationship is connectivity. Apart from development on the domestic front, such as the inauguration of the Ahmedabad-Mumbai bullet train project, India and Japan are now projecting this partnership at a regional level, beginning in South Asia, expanding into the Indian Ocean and onwards to Africa. Where India struggled to meet its domestic requirements on infrastructure development, it is now outlining regional strategic connectivity and infrastructure investments in partnership with Japan.

Geopolitical Competition

Post 2016 annual summit in November’16, PM Modi and PM Shinzo Abe announced their intention to build a maritime corridor connecting Asia and Africa. This intention crystalized into the “Asia Africa Growth Corridor” (AAGC) in May’17, a week after India refused to join China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Japan’s concern about China’s assertive behavior and rising profile in South China sea and Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and India’s concern about disputed land border with China and its strategic implications of commercial engagements in its neighbourhood, created a platform for deeper collaboration between India and Japan and their partners. India and Japan realized the need to act on the changing security dynamics to secure their interests and strategic ambitions. Instead of competing with China’s ambitious BRI backed by unrivalled capital, India and Japan began creating an alternative to BRI and complicate China’s strategic calculus and maintain a multipolar world by stabilizing the region in times of uncertainty. The intention of AAGC is to address the region’s challenges, deepen regional co-operation and integration, strengthen regional economic and security forums and promote peaceful resolution of disputes. The AAGC focuses on four areas 1) Development Co-operation projects  2) Quality infrastructure and institutional connectivity  3) Enhancing Skills  4) People to People Partnership.

The development of connectivity via quality infrastructure and other projects including capacity building for shared prosperity under AAGC will be carried out bilaterally and with other partners in an open, transparent and non-exclusive manner and based on international standards, responsible debt financing practices and in alignment with local economic and development strategies and priorities of the countries, These parameters of AAGC removes flaws under Chinese built projects, especially fears of “debt traps”.

India Japan Collaboration for "Act East Policy"

Apart from AAGC, the two countries are collaborating to enhance connectivity in North East India through India Japan Act East Forum and develop “smart islands”, interpreted to be Andaman and Nicobar islands.

The Act East Forum established last year has served as a driving force to advance India-Japan co-operation in the North East. Its second meeting was held on 8 October’18 with the following outcomes:

For implementation:

1. Meghalaya North East Connectivity  Phase 1: Tura-Dalu (NH-51)  Phase 2: Shillong-Dawki (NH-40)
2. Mizoram North East Connectivity  Phase 1&2 : Aizwal-Tuipang (NH-54)
3. Sikkim: Biodiversity conservation & Forest Management
4. Nagaland: Forest conservation livelihood improvement

Reaffirmed Intentions:

1. Completion of Gelephu-Dalu corridor including Dhubri/Phulbari bridge project, which will be the longest river bridge in India, as Phase 3 of North East Road Network connectivity improvement project.
2. Main District Roads (MDRs) and Other District Roads (ODRs) for socio-economic development
3. Project for Renovation and Modernization of Umiam-Umtru stage III hydroelectric power station.
4. Sustainable Forest Management in Tripura and similar project for consideration in Meghalaya.

13^th India-Japan Annual Summit (28-29 October’18)

Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Japan on October 28-29, 2018 for India-Japan Annual Summit with Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe. The visit saw deepening ties across the board, especially on defence and security. Both leaders reviewed the significant milestones achieved over the last four years and outlined shared vision for the future of India-Japan relations.

The two leaders shared their view that in order to achieve this shared vision, India and Japan must endeavour to work together for a rules-based and inclusive world order that fosters trust and confidence by enhancing communication and connectivity to ensure rule of law, unimpeded trade and flow of people, technology and ideas for shared prosperity.

Key Highlights of Annual Summit:

1. Establishing the “Platform for Japan-India Business Cooperation in Asia-Africa Region to enhance the exchanges between Japanese and Indian businesses toward developing Industrial corridors and Industrial network in the region.
2. India Japan plan to cooperate in areas such as development of LNG-related infrastructure in Sri Lanka; housing, education and electrification projects in Myanmar; bridge and rail projects in Bangladesh and business development and health initiatives like cancer hospital in Kenya.
3. Launching of a comprehensive India-Japan Digital Partnership with the vision to develop IoT and AI solutions for societal benefits.
4. Deepen bilateral security and defence co-operation by instituting Foreign and Defence Ministerial (2+2) dialogue.
5. Commence negotiations on the Acquisition and Cross Servicing Agreement (ACSA) to enhance the strategic depth of bilateral security and Defence co-operation. This is similar to logistic support agreement which India has signed with US and France which allow navies to use each others bases, either at home or overseas, thereby fundamentally increasing a country’s ability to sustain its presence in an expanded region. 
6. Signed agreement towards enhanced exchange of information to expand Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) between the Indian Navy and the Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force (JMSDF).
7. Commencement of co-operative research in the area of Unmanned Ground Vehicle (UGV) and Robotics.
8. To continue efforts with regard to cooperation on US-2 amphibian aircraft.
9. Japan announced joining of International Solar Alliance.
10. Agreement to conclude a bilateral Swap Agreement of USD 75 billion For External Commercial Borrowing (ECB), no mandatory hedging will be required for infrastructure ECB of more than 5 years minimum average maturity.